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Moneyball for MotoGP

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Weather & Racing

Weather, one of our four key elements utilized when building our algorithms, steers the outcome of any given lap and race. This unpredictable, powerful component is composed of numerous chain reactions that must be taken into consideration when performing bike set up and planning the optimal race line. We are here to educate you on these factors and their influence on road racing.

The first thing you must know is the difference between climate and weather. Climate refers to the long term patterns and studies averages where as weather is the day to day fluctuations in the atmosphere.

Climate = long-term / weather = short-term.

As our team works through historical climate data, various weather components will be identified and tied back to their affects on racing. Each circuit being raced on during the 2019 season will be analyzed and profiled for any given month in regards to four main climate factors: outgoing long wave radiation, humidity levels, precipitation and average air temperature. These four factors combined allow you to understand what is happening in the atmosphere, the air and on the earth’s surface.

  • Outgoing long wave radiation:
    • The level of outgoing long wave radiation detects how much radiation is being released from the earth back to the atmosphere. Low levels of OLR detects higher moisture levels that have resulted in cloud formation which ultimately traps the OLR and reflects it back to the earth’s surface.
  • Humidity Levels:
    • Humidity is the level of water vapor in the air. Warmer air has a higher ability of holding moisture and creating the humidity effect that we are all too familiar with. When the relative humidity reaches 100%, this means the air can’t hold any more moisture and it can lead to precipitation.
  • Precipitation:
    • The condensation of atmospheric water vapor. (The stuff that makes you want some wet tires on your bike)
  • Average Air Temperature:
    • In our case, this will be the average air temperature for a specific location/circuit during the race season to track fluctuation and ties to to the other climate factors.

Illustrating these four main climate factors in relation to racing will allow viewers to understand the crucial role weather plays on free practice, qualifying and race day. Our goal is to analyze, educate and ultimately further the MotoGP viewing experience.

The Fun Stuff:

Click here to learn more about the chain reactions that affect weather on race day.

Click here to view the average historical climate values for each circuit.

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