All rider photos sourced from MotoGP.com
That’s a wrap for the 2019 MotoGP summer break! Riders and teams are jumping back into the season full throttle with chapter 10 just a few days away. The season is continuing to heat up and although Repsol Honda rider, Marc Marquez, is showing signs of taking off with the World Champion title, each race has posed new threats and there have been no signs of slowing down on anyone’s part. At this point, riders are focused on taking points away from Marquez before it’s too late.
As race fans mentally prepare for the Czech Grand Prix, we think back to one year ago at Brno. Ducati superstar, Andrea Dovizioso took home his 3rd (out of 9 total) podium finishes of the season. He was followed closely by his former teammate, Jorge Lorenzo as well as Lorenzo’s new teammate, Marc Marquez. So 2 Ducatis and 1 Honda. What can we expect this weekend?
One thing to keep an eye on this weekend is a significant fluctuation in circuit temperature from free practice to race day.
To get us started, I have provided the riders ranked by historical combined index on the Automotodrom Brno. These indexes take into account the last 4 seasons and represent an average circuit speed index handicapped by a consistency index.
Now you may look at this ranking list and think, why is someone like Rossi or Lorenzo ranked so high over riders who are frankly killing it this season like Danilo Petrucci? Our present historical combined index does not take into account current season performance. But all this is about to change! Within the upcoming weeks, our newest index will be polished and released and will ultimately manipulate the current combined index into an even more accurate numerical representation of each rider. Stay tuned.
Let’s get back to last year’s Czech Grand Prix winner, Andrea Dovizioso. Today we are going to evaluate his current season performance leading up to the Czech GP compared his 2018 journey to Brno. We will examine his combined indexes, speed indexes and consistency indexes from each GP to the next.
Note:A combined lower index = stronger performance
A lower speed index = faster sector times
A lower consistency index = smaller variation in sector times
This season, Dovi’s overall performance has been significantly more stable with less variation in his indexes from one race to the next. With less DNFs leading up to Brno this year compared to last, the Ducati rider is holding on tight to that 2nd position in the world championship ranking. Although he has maintained a more consistent combined index throughout the season, his trajectory shows a positive slope. This suggests a stronger performance within the first few races and a gradual weakening in performance as the season rolls on.
In general, Dovizioso’s speed index has improved notably compared to last season. His 2019 index (marked in orange) has been stronger in almost every race this season. Similar to his combined index, his performance in the last three races has taken a dive which explains the postive slope of his speed trajectory (the solid orange line)
Consistency is key and Dovizioso has brought that skill to each circuit this season. Although his 2019 trajectory (solid orange line) follows that of his 2018 trajectory (solid blue line) with a positive slope, the slope is not nearly as steep which identifies an overall much more stable performance.
At the start of the season, Andrea Dovizioso was thought to be one of Marquez’s biggest competitors for the World Champion title. He remains a threat to the Honda rider but must increase his overall speed while maintaining his superior consistency in order to overtake Marquez. Petrucci and Dovi have brought incredible talent to each circuit and we hope to see the two Ducati riders continue to push each other as the season unravels.
The raw talent in this season’s line-up is jaw dropping and we can’t help but to celebrate the increasing competitiveness that drives the future of MotoGP. The Grand Prix Scout team thanks you all for your support and feedback that has pushed us to develop a supplmentary source as you follow the series. We have taken a unique path in studying the sport and believe that data analytics will play a significant role in what lies ahead of many sports.
Have a great week, never stop pushing yourself and stay tuned for the Czech Grand Prix!