All rider photos sourced from MotoGP.com
September 29th, 2020
Catalunya 20, 19 and 18 – How Close Does It Get?
Ranked as the #1 circuit for total net movement between riders, the Circuit de Barcelona – Catalunya tops our list on unique venues that consistently delivers the action. The profile of this circuit is diverse and has proven not to reward specific manufacturers, but instead, comes down to individual rider adaptability and style. Consistently facing teams and riders with challenging weather conditions, the Catalan Grand Prix presents new obstacles each year.
Now we say that the Catalan GP is competitive, but just how close does it get? And more importantly, which years have been the closest? Is there a trend in rider performance across the entire grid? Let’s take a look back at the last three years…
The ranges in both Speed Index and Consistency Index have gradually increased from 2018, to 2019, to 2020. This means that there is currently a larger gap from the strongest index to the weakest than there was 3 short years ago. From this, we can infer that while some riders are accelerating at a quick pace, that momentum forward is not tricking down the grid and performance gaps are forming. Ideally, the range would remain small, but given the dynamic profile and characteristics of the Circuit de Barcelona – Catalunya, the reasoning behind the gap becomes more clear and frankly, understandable.
| Speed Index Range | Consistency Index Range | |
| 2020 | 0.786 | 0.051 |
| 2019 | 0.718 | 0.048 |
| 2018 | 0.428 | 0.032 |
July 14th, 2020
2020 Jerez GP Pre-Race Simulation Results
Grand Prix Scout has developed a real-word simulation platform that offers statistical probability projections prior to each Grand Prix. Numbers don’t lie and all of Grand Prix Scout’s base and derived indexes stem from historical data that allows us to analyze past events and forecast the future.
At the start of each race week, simulation results broken down by quartiles will be released, allowing you to see where each rider falls against his opponents based on statistical probability distributions. The results offer a panoramic view of the entire grid and insight to the fierce battles that occur mid-pack that are often left unseen due to the frontrunner coverage.
With the first MotoGP race of the 2020 season only a few days away, it is time to release the first round of simulation results! First, let’s lay out the simulation process and results…
Simulation process – Thousands of race simulations are performed that take into account unique pieces of data such as external factor standardization, timing and weather. The simulations are circuit specific and only study racers who have at least 1 year of experience on the circuit since joining the premier league.
Simulation results – A calculated probability is assigned to each rider for each possible finishing position that identifies the likelihood of them finishing in that position. This allows us to analyze each rider through a range of positions and ultimately separate them into statistical quartiles. Due to substantial probability gaps, it is possible for each quartile to have a varying number of riders. As we know – a race frequently consists of numerous smaller battles broken up into groups, each equally competitive and each equally important as riders fight for the valuable championship points.
And now, without further ado, here are the simulation results for the Gran Premio Red Bull de Espana.
For more information and to keep up with the in-season simulation results, check out the MotoGP stats page!
July 9th, 2020
MM93 – Before and After
The wait for the 2020 season is nearly over as teams have begun making their way to the Circuito de Jerez! With next week being the first official race week for the MotoGP riders, it is hard to say who will fall in the limelight as almost every rider sits in a unique situation. Whether it be coming back from surgery or injury, a team change, a rookie debut or a perhaps sitting in a hot seat in terms of contract renewal, the breathing room is tight as the grid continues to surge in competitiveness.
Repsol Honda rider, Marc Marquez is sure to fall in the spotlight next weekend as he returns to the circuit after a prolonged recovery from a shoulder surgery he underwent last winter. In addition, expectations are high as the reigning World Champion recently signed a 4 year contract extension with Repsol Honda, binding the dream team through 2024.
Today’s data of the day is going to look back at the 2019 Jerez Grand Prix, specifically, our analysis around Marc Marquez prior to and after the Spanish race. Needless to say, the areas that we had identified as room for improvement were fully fulfilled as Marc Marquez took his 2nd win of the season at the Circuito de Jerez.
Pre-Race
After a seventh pole position in Austin, Texas and an unforgettable low slide, Marc Marquez passed on the winning title at the Grand Prix of the Americas to Suzuki rider, Alex Rins. The 2018 World Champion will be entering the first European GP of the year with a point to prove. Although Marquez hasn’t landed pole position in Jerez within the past four years, he does hold the strongest historical speed index out of all riders which is a significant advantage over some others who are still finding harmony with their bikes. With a 1st place podium finish at Jerez in 2018, the Spanish rider is looking to gain as many points as he can to move up in championship rankings (4th place isn’t sitting too well…). We are hoping to see an improvement in consistency from Marquez to match his dominant speed.
Post-Race
Repsol Honda rider Marc Marquez had quite the comeback at yesterday’s race with one of his classic “check out wins” where he lead the pack for the entire race. With a great start off the grid from P3, Marquez was off and running. Holding the strongest average speed index for all sectors combined, #93 crossed the finish line just 1.6 seconds ahead of Alex Rins. Let’s get down to the nitty gritty… Marquez OWNED sectors 1 and 3. We’re talking dominant in both consistency and speed. And hey, guess what? T3 is the longest of the four sectors with T1 close behind. Gaining ground through the longer sectors, Marquez was able to begin distancing himself from the pack and focus on finding his groove.
July 7th, 2020
What We Do
The basis of what we do lies above within the 4 points – indexing, benchmarking, simulations and quantitative content coming together to educate fans and ultimately enhance the MotoGP viewership experience. The Grand Prix Scout team offers pre and post-race analysis to prepare fans prior to each race weekend with statistical projections, historical analysis and after, a debrief of each event to explain what happened and more importantly, why.
Next week will be the first official race week of the season for the MotoGP riders as they come together in Jerez alongside the Moto2 and Moto3 riders who are preparing for their second round of the 2020 season. And with race week comes pre-race analysis so be sure to keep an eye on our blog and Instagram account @grandprixscout for some exciting analysis around the riders who will be lining up on the grid in less than 2 weeks.
July 2nd, 2020
2019 Throwback – Impressions from the Italian Grand Prix
Thursday’s DOTDs are a great time to flashback to historical analysis around all the talented teams and riders in the paddock. And while fans patiently await July 19th to see their all-time favorite riders line up on the grid at Jerez, we can’t forget the young rookies who will be running with the bulls in 2020. Iker Lecuona, Brad Binder and Alex Marquez are joining the series at a pivotal time as younger riders are seen consistently challenging the more seasoned MotoGP legends.
An unfortunate start to their debut season, this year’s rookies will experience a sprint through the championship as the world tour has been cut short due to COVID-19 restrictions. The Grand Prix Scout team is eager to deliver in-season analysis around these young racers but for now, let’s revisit a post Mugello GP analytical piece examining the 2019 MotoGP rookies….
Let’s Talk Rookies
Three out of the four rookies finished the race at Mugello and two of these riders collected championship points. Below we have provided quick stats for each rookie that completed the race. Rankings are specifically for these three and do not reflect their standing compared to the entire group.
| Rider & Team | Starting Grid Position | Final Position | Speed Index Ranking | Consistency Index Ranking | Predator & Prey Index Ranking |
| Fabio Quartararo | P2 | P10 | 2nd | 3rd | 1st |
| Joan Mir | P20 | P12 | 1st | 1st | 2nd |
| Miguel Oliveira | P22 | P16 | 3rd | 2nd | 3rd |
Although Oliveira had a poor qualifying which resulted in a start from the back of the grid, he maintained a strong consistency index which enabled him to hold his position. A rookie with strong consistency reflects a mature riding style which is crucial for greener riders. Speed will come with time but a leg up on consistency will ultimately divide the leaders from the followers.
Similar to Oliveira, Mir held a strong consistency but was able to match that with a superior speed index. Having the resources and support from the factory Suzuki team, Mir has an advantage but must focus in on areas of improvement. A stronger qualifying paired with this speed index would have enabled Mir to move higher up in rankings and easily fall within the top 10.
With an incredible qualifying, Yamaha rider Fabio Quartararo had a huge advantage over his rookie opponents. Starting with an 18+ position lead, Fabio was able to bank on a strong starting position off the grid. Fast times with poor consistency is what we saw from the young rookie all weekend. One fast time can place you high on the grid, but if Fabio can’t study the more seasoned riders, he will not learn how to maintain and defend his position.
June 30th, 2020
8 Circuits vs 2 Indexes
The final 3 week countdown until the start of the 2020 MotoGP season has officially begun as Jerez awaits on the horizon. With a European tour scheduled to start in mid-July and conclude mid-November, MotoGP riders are set to race through a “sprint” of a season with 13 races currently on the schedule and about half of those being back-to-back races.
While our “Data of the Days” tend to analyze more rider and team performances, today we are going to layout some circuit analysis focusing on the 8 locations that the series will be traveling to this summer and fall. Below we have provided a test cross that examines two unique indexes:
1. Average Efficiency Index – identifies a rider’s ability to make forward progress throughout a race, taking into account grid position, net movement and volatility
2. Average Net Movement Index – refers to the rate of passing between riders from start to finish
So what do the four quadrants within this cross test tell us about these 8 unique circuits?
- Strong Average Efficiency + High Average Net Movement – Catalunya, Jerez and Le Mans
Significant levels of rider movement typically in the forward direction suggesting a very competitive circuit with numerous opponent overtakes and less manufacturer advantage, more rewarding to individual rider skill. - Strong Average Efficiency + Low Average Net Movement – Brno
Very efficient riding with less net movement suggesting a larger gap between riders as they hold their positions and endure less tiring, lap-to-lap battles. - Weak Average Efficiency + High Average Net Movement – Valencia
More frequent lap-to-lap battles with little room for riders to pull away as they must consistently defend their position and fight to regain any lost positions. - Weak Average Efficiency + Low Average Net Movement – Aragon, Misano and Red Bull Ring
A more spaced out environment where riders tend to hold their position and this static, sometimes backwards momentum ultimately outweighs significant forward advancement up the grid.
It is evident that the 2020 season is shaping up to be a highly competitive few months not only due to the unique and talented grid, but also because of the diverse set of circuits that await the return of the MotoGP paddock.
June 25th, 2020
Pol Espargaro – the Man of the Hour
With less than a month left before the start of the 2020 season, teams are continuing to release contract deals and renewals with eyes set on 2021. Danilo Petrucci has officially signed a 1 year contract with KTM Tech 3 for 2021, bumping up Miguel Oliveira to the Factory KTM team alongside Brad Binder. So what does this mean for KTM legend Pol Espargaro? Although it has yet to be confirmed, the young Spanish rider will most likely hop over to the HRC garage where he will join Marc Marquez on one of the arguably most competitive teams, Repsol Honda.
Pol has made great strides in his MotoGP career and a move to Honda may just be the tipping point where he see him challenging the front of the pack. Today we are going to revisit an excerpt from a mid-season review of Pol’s performance that was originally released on July 11th, 2019. This brief analytical piece examines Pol’s progress from a handful of unique angles to help identify where progress has been made and where we believe his training priorities ought to lie.
Excerpt from “Pol On Pol – What A Concept”
…so since joining the KTM team, where has Pol excelled the most and where do we hope to see a little more development? Let’s break it down.
*Note: all data taken into consideration is from 2017 – 2019 for the first 9 races of each season*
Finish Rate
3 DNFs within the first 9 races in 2017, 2 in 2018 and how many this year? ZERO!
Pol’s finishing rate has been on a steep climb since joining KTM and regardless of whether he’s competitive with the top dogs, consistently gaining championship points is key. Remember when Nicky Hayden won the World Championship? Yeah, he didn’t win a single race. It’s all about the points people.
Combined Index
Pol’s average combined index for the first 9 races of the 2017, 2018 and 2019 seasons is on a linear path to improvement. While not every single race index has shown significant improvement year to year, any backpedaling in index value is so minor that it is not worthy of attention.
An improvement in historical combined index reflects a balance maintained between speed and consistency where sector speed holds the most weight and is handicapped by sector time consistency.
As Pol continues to work with KTM in developing their machinery in the premier class of racing, he will develop a harmony with the bike that allows him to push it harder without compromising the 2+ years of foundation they have built. It’s only up from here!
Predator / Prey Ability
Overall, Pol shows improvement year to year for both his predator and prey indexes. With that said, his variance each year is significantly higher than we would like to see. What does this mean exactly?
Pol has the ability to prioritize and ride with a defensive and offensive mindset when necessary but has not found stability in this race to race. Some GPs he will excel and others he will get swallowed by the group.
Maintaining a SMALL variance in both these indexes is necessary in order to practice and execute holding a position, overtaking others at opportune times and recognizing your own strengths and weaknesses on every sector of every circuit.
Last Thoughts
As we see Pol begin to push himself and the KTM on the circuit, we hope he does not sacrifice a consistent performance throughout the season as each race holds valuable championship points. We saw the Spanish rider take a podium position at the 2018 Valencia Grand Prix, where DNFs were being given out like candy as a handful of riders went for a swim on the wet circuit. Pol must find his edge that sets him apart from his opponents as the series continues to climb a competitive slope.
June 23rd, 2020
Efficiency Across the Grid
The 2020 season is starting to feel quite real as a handful of riders partake in a private test at the Misano World Circuit. Aprilia, Ducati, KTM and Suzuki have begun a 3 day test as teams and riders rev up for a unique racing season that will include 8 of the European circuits.
Last week we released a brief analytical piece that identified the highest ranked riders in regards to Super Combined Index for the 8 circuits included in the 2020 calendar. Today we are going to build off that information and recognize those who hold the strongest average Efficiency Indexes across the same circuits. Unlike last week where we provided the top 5 riders for each circuit, today we are going to focus on the 6 riders who most frequently rank in the top 5 for average Efficiency Index. This means that although no rider holds a top Efficiency Index across all 8 circuits, these 6 racers have maintained a consistently efficient performance over the past 5 seasons.
You may be wondering, what is the significance of the Efficiency Index? Let’s start with the methodology behind this unique, telling index… The Efficiency Index identifies a rider’s ability to make forward progress throughout a race. This index takes into account each rider’s performance in both free practice and qualifying as the starting grid position is used to weight/handicap the overall efficiency.
This index rewards riders for 4 complimentary performance factors:
1. A strong starting grid position
2. A positive net movement meaning they finished the race ahead of their starting position
3. A large net movement value which suggests they overtook a significant amount of their opponents
4. A lower volatility signifying productive movement
One thing you may notice from the riders listed below is that they are a diverse group with a handful of frequent podium finishers and a few that typically finish mid-pack. The Efficiency Index takes into account very specific aspects of a rider’s performance and rewards those who crank out a strong race but are perhaps overshadowed by the top 3 riders. From this, we are able to identify strong competitors across the entire grid that will be challenging the front of the pack as well as the middle of the pack.
So who should you keep an eye out for during the 8 circuit tour this year..
Alex Rins, Suzuki Ecstar
Valentino Rossi, Monster Energy Yamaha
Marc Marquez, Repsol Honda
Tito Rabat, Reale Avintia Racing
Takaaki Nakagami, LCR Honda
Cal Crutchlow, LCR Honda
June 18th, 2020
Historical Data Offering Insight to the 2020 Season
We are just about 1 month out from the start of the 2020 MotoGP with the opening round taking place at the Circuito de Jerez! Riding through what is looking to be an exclusive European tour from July – November, riders and teams are gearing up for another competitive season before a major contract renewal season begins in 2021.
To help prepare race fans for this unique season, we are going to identify those who have historically dominated at the 8 circuits that are included in this year’s tour. The riders below are those who rank highest for Historical Combined Index which takes into account the 2015 – 2019 seasons. Unfamiliar with Grand Prix Scout’s indexing system? Click here to learn more!
Keep in mind, those who prevail at Jerez, Red Bull Ring, Misano, Aragon and Valencia will ultimately have an upper hand in the championship as these circuits will be hosting back-to-back races.
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | |
| Jerez | Rins | Marquez | Rossi | Dovizioso | Morbidelli |
| Brno | Marquez | Crutchlow | Dovizioso | Rossi | Quartararo |
| Red Bull Ring | Dovizioso | Marquez | Quartararo | Rossi | Vinales |
| Misano | Quartararo | Mir | Marquez | Dovizioso | Rins |
| Catalunya | Marquez | Quartararo | Rossi | Mir | Rins |
| Le Mans | Marquez | Rossi | Dovizioso | Miller | Quartararo |
| Aragon | Marquez | Quartararo | Rossi | Dovizioso | A. Espargaro |
| Circuit Ricardo | Quartararo | Marquez | Rins | Mir | Dovizioso |
June 11th, 2020
2020 Is On!
Today’s DOTD is short, sweet and a very memorable release for all race fans… After almost 4 months from what should have been the start to a very exciting season, the uncertainty of 2020 can be put to rest as Dorna has officially released the 2020 MotoGP calendar!
We can expect a summer and fall filled with European races with the potential of venturing outside of Europe depending on restrictions due to the Coronavirus. So for now, we look forward to seeing teams and rider head to the selective group of circuits across Spain, Czech Republic, Austria, San Marino and France.
June 9th, 2020
Why We’re Excited 2020 is Set to Begin in Jerez
Various announcements have been made suggesting that the 2020 season will open with back-to-back races in Jerez on July 19th. These will no doubt be suspenseful, action packed weekends as riders, teams and fans will have waited almost 4 months for the delayed start of the season. While this is a very legitimate reason to look forward to Jerez, the list of reasons that we here at Grand Prix Scout are excited goes well beyond that.
Today’s DOTD is a quick, informative list of reasons why Jerez is a perfect location for the start of this unique season. Backed by historical events and more importantly, data that stems from Grand Prix Scout’s proprietary indexes, the factors below are meant to educate fans and enhance the viewership experience.
- The circuit ranks 4th in Average Net Predator/Prey Movement which suggests that Jerez is a more difficult circuit that holds less manufacturer advantage and rewards individual rider skill
- Supporting our 1st point, the 2019 podium was comprised of 3 different manufacturers: Honda, Suzuki and Yamaha (followed by 2 Ducati riders)
- The circuit is quite balanced with 6 left corners and 8 right corners
- The all time fastest lap time was set last year by French rookie, Fabio Quartararo, who earned his 1st pole position of his MotoGP career that weekend
- The all time fastest race lap was set last year by the 2019 World Champion, Marc Marquez
- The Historical Combined Indexes for each sector identify a diverse set of riders in regards to top 5 strongest historical indexes which again, suggests a highly competitive circuit:
| Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 | Sector 4 | |
| 1st | Marquez | Rossi | Marquez | Marquez |
| 2nd | Rins | Dovizioso | Rins | Dovizioso |
| 3rd | Rossi | Iannone | Rossi | Rossi |
| 4th | Nakagami | Rins | Morbidelli | Vinales |
| 5th | Dovizioso | Petrucci | A. Espargaro | Rins |
June 4th, 2020
Weather and Racing
Weather, one of our four key elements utilized when building our algorithms, steers the outcome of any given lap and race. This unpredictable, powerful component is composed of numerous chain reactions that must be taken into consideration when performing bike set up and planning the optimal race line. We are here to educate you on these factors and their influence on road racing.
Weather is all about chain reactions – moisture levels, currents, winds, pressure levels, all the good stuff. Our weather section focuses in on four significant variables that all depend heavily on each other and all play a big role in motorcycle racing. We’ve done our best to break it down into simplest of terms, but as always, if you have any questions feel free to shoot us a message!
Long story short:
Cloud coverage dictates how much energy transfers to and from the Earth. The Earth must maintain an energy balance with the atmosphere in order to retain a stable climate. Air temperature directly impacts the fate of any present water vapor as warmer air has a higher water holding capacity than cooler air.
Nitty Gritty details:
Let’s begin with OLR – outgoing long wave radiation. Earth absorbs incoming solar radiation (insolation) from the sun in the form of short waves and UV energy. The insolation traveling to Earth’s surface has a few possible paths it can take on the way down… It can either be absorbed into the atmosphere, reflected back up by clouds/atmosphere, reflected by Earth’s surface OR absorbed by Earth’s surface. Take a minute, process this… okay let’s continue! Everything on Earth’s surface has a reflectivity value that corresponds to its ability to reflect insolation without absorbing energy. This is known as albedo. A high albedo describes a surface that will reflect a high proportion of radiation while a low albedo translates to high insolation absorption with little reflectivity. Surfaces such as ice or sand have a high albedo and will reflect a majority of insolation that reaches it.
Think about when you walk on the beach, the surface of the sand can literally burn the bottom of your feet but if you sink your feet below the surface, the sand is much cooler (it’s not absorbing, just reflecting off the top). Water bodies and asphalt are great example of surfaces with low albedos. They absorb energy throughout the day, continuously heating up, and will release energy in the form of long waves to achieve an earth-atmosphere energy balance. This balance is essential to maintain a stable average temperature and therefore, a stable climate. The long wave radiation being released from Earth will either be absorbed by the atmosphere, make its way past the atmosphere or will be reflected back to the surface by clouds.
When we reference OLR levels, we are ultimately talking about the amount of OLR being detected at the top of Earth’s atmosphere. A high OLR tells us that there is little interference with the radiation traveling back and forth and a low OLR indicates more interference AKA cloud coverage. Cloud coverage is evidence of moisture in the air that has risen, cooled, expanded and condensed. With higher moisture levels present, humidity and precipitation come into the picture and a number of things can occur from there. Warmer air has a higher moisture holding capacity, meaning it can hold more water vapor (hello humidity) before condensing. Warm air will release the water vapor if one of two things occur – if it reaches its maximum holding capacity or if it cools enough to where it can no longer retain the present level of moisture. The air will then condense and result in rain or snow.
All these variables play into tire choice, optimal lines, physical demands and mental preparation going into race day.
June 2nd, 2020
The Race to the Factory Team
Although the start of the race season has yet to commence, teams are deep into the rider contract process for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. While many satellite seats remain unassigned for the upcoming seasons, only a few factory seats are left as M. Marquez, Vinales, Quartararo, Rins, Mir and Miller have been signed onto factory teams.
The latest rider to announce a finalized contract is Australian rider, Jack Miller. Bumping up from the Pramac Racing Team to the factory Ducati Team, Miller has received a well deserved opportunity to prove his refined skills and mental strength to compete on a factory team. Prior to the 2019 season, Miller was a contender for Lorenzo’s seat alongside Dovizioso but unfortunately fell short as Petrucci was given a one year contract on the factory team and an extension for the 2020 season.
Now, Miller is out of the hot seat with a one year contract and he, alongside all the Ducati fans wait to see who will fill the second factory seat. Dovizioso? Petrucci? Someone entirely new?
Today we are going to compare Andrea Dovizioso’s and Danilo Petrucci’s 2019 numbers and future projections as they stand as the top contenders for a factory season alongside Miller. Below we have provided 5 unique aspects of each rider’s recent performance, each with its own significance.
| Dovizioso | Petrucci | |
| 2019 Average Grid Position | 7th | 8th |
| 2019 Final Championship Position and Points | 2nd place with 269 points | 6th place with 176 points |
| 2020 Pre-Season Efficiency Index Trajectory Ranking | 2nd | 8th |
| 2020 Pre-Season Speed Index Trajectory Ranking | 8th | 7th |
| 2020 Pre-Season Consistency Index Trajectory Ranking | 1st | 8th |
Receiving a contract, especially from a factory team, means that you are a competitive, mentally tough rider who shows a certain rate of improvement across multiple factors. A team who offers a rider a 1+ year contract must see room for improvement/refinement and adaptability in a rider.
By looking at the chart above, it is evident that Andrea Dovizioso is a seasoned rider who has reached the stage of detailed refinement in his performance. Whereas greener riders tend to show the largest rate of improvement / strongest trajectory in Speed Index, riders such as Dovi have already obtained the ability to crank out competitive sector times but are now working to match that with consistent, strategic riding around their opponents. Seeing that Dovi is ranked 1st and 2nd for Consistency and Efficiency trajectories, we believe that he has some valuable years left in his career as he continues to rank highest among this incredibly competitive field. An improvement in qualifying position matched with his already superior efficiency would enhance Dovi’s image as a major threat on the grid.
Although Petrucci falls just behind Dovizioso in average qualifying position, his trajectories tell a much different story. Positioning him in the middle of the pack across all three categories, Petrucci’s pre-season trajectories show possible signs of a plateau in his race performance. No significant improvements, no significant weaknesses, Petrucci must find his unique, secret weapon in order to stand out from the crowd and beat others to a contract renewal. An improvement in Efficiency Index would be very beneficial for the Italian rider as a superior index identifies not only strategic riding among opponents, but also those who are able to maintain mental strength from start to finish. To be a competitive racer with a secure contract on a factory team requires a demanding level of mental toughness and endurance.
Time will tell, but until then, be sure to keep up with Grand Prix Scout’s Data Of The Days every Tuesday and Thursday. Stay safe and ride on!
May 28th, 2020
Re-introducing the Super Combined Index
The Grand Prix Scout team has developed a diverse set of performance indexes that allow us to offer unique, in-depth analysis around each circuit, rider and team based off historical data as well as in-season performance. In order to fully embrace the extensive analysis offered around this special sport, you first must grasp the concepts behind the indexes that fuel the analysis. So today, we are going to revisit a piece written by Tomas Healy, Grand Prix Scout’s Applied Scientist, that explores the methodology behind the Super Combined Index.
At Grand Prix Scout, one of the main indicators we use to evaluate a rider’s performance is the Combined Index. It provides a good overview of where the strengths and weaknesses of a rider lie, and the more laps the rider posts, the richer the profiled information. However, the team saw a need for an upgraded indexing system that builds off the historical combined index and factors in current season performance. Rules and bike specifications change from season to season and in turn, so do rider performances. More significantly, riders may change teams in the off-season and these foreign setups can potentially enhance a rider’s capabilities or diminish them. Historical performance reflects a rider’s strengths and weaknesses, but not necessarily how he will perform in the upcoming race, as that is down to some degree to the bike’s capabilities. Therefore, we developed a “Form Index” to complement the Combined Index.
The Form Index is based on a rider’s most recent performances. This will indicate whether a rider is adapting to the current season’s bike and how his performance has been affected in relation to the rest of the pack. It compares how a rider has fared in recent events, compared to the predictions we previously generated. From this data, the team is able to extract the Form Index, that tells us how a rider’s short-term career is developing. This new index can be fused with the Combined Index to output the Super Combined Index.
This new index takes into account a rider’s historical performance as well as his current form, on his most recent bike. This makes for a more realistic and accurate prediction of how a race will unravel.
The Super Combined Index benefits all riders, but will strongly influence those whose historical performances do not reflect their current ones. Young and hungry riders, like Àlex Rins or Maverick Viñales, who are expected to develop greatly in the next couple of years, have not had past performances worthy of their current status in the sport. The Super Combined Index helps us evaluate them as they deserve. On the other side of the spectrum, riders like Andrea Iannone or Johann Zarco have experienced great success with their past bikes, but are currently suffering because of their team switches. Past performances from riders such as Iannone and Zarco do not indicate by any means how they are currently expected to race. The Super Combined Index takes this regression in performance and handicaps their historical indexes. Until these riders are able to recover from their team change and improve their race performance, they will continue to drop in the index rankings.
During a MotoGP season, rivalries and performances are dynamic. In other words, bikes and riders are pushed to the limit to look for an extra edge over the next rider. Riders don’t evolve at the same rate and our team hopes to highlight this with the breakthrough of the Super Combined Index. All in all, we expect this new index to better explain short-term changes in the sport and most of all, to better inform our fans. This index will keep improving as we move into the future but as it is, the Super Combined Index provides a reliable indicator of the rider’s current form as they race their way through the 2019 season.
May 26th, 2020
Miguel Oliveira Debut Season
Entering his second season with Red Bull KTM Tech 3, Miguel Oliveira has found himself in one of the more competitive groups of riders that the MotoGP series has encountered in quite some time. The Portuguese rider concluded his rookie season in 17th place and ended the 2020 pre-season tests in 12th and 19th.
With the first race of the season yet to be scheduled, we continue to look back at historical performances and analysis around the talented group. Today we are going to review Oliveira’s debut season performance in regards to Efficiency Index and Net Movement vs Volatility Index. By studying these variables, we can better understand the unique patterns within Oliveira’s performance and the path he took during his rookie season.
The chart above depicts Oliveira’s Efficiency Index for every race that he completed during the 2019 season. As with all of Grand Prix Scout’s indexes, a smaller number represents a stronger performance while a larger number indicates a weaker performance with more room for error.
As you can see, Oliveira encountered a balance between positive and negative Efficiency Indexes with just a few more bars falling on the negative side. This means that more than 50% of Oliveira’s rookie season performances concluded with a strong Efficiency Index where he maintained forward momentum, finished ahead of where he started and limited the minor yet tiring lap-to-lap battles. From this chart, we can infer that Oliveira is building off a strong foundation as he focuses on the detail oriented, strategic movements first before going full throttle and risking a DNF.
This chart provides unique, supplementary analysis to the Efficiency Index chart above. Each bar represents the difference in Net Movement vs Volatility within a race. Let me break that down… The Net Movement Index identifies the fluctuation in race position across all laps – think starting position vs final position. On the contrary, the Volatility Index accounts for the total number of times a rider changed positions. Some riders endure a high number of lap-to-lap battles with their opponents until they are able to create a gap between themselves. In an ideal world, the Net Movement and Volatility Indexes would cancel each other out, meaning that each pass was clean and the rider was able to hold their position with no exhausting, wearing battles.
Miguel Oliveira’s 2019 Net vs Volatility shows a familiar pattern that we would expect from a rookie as he rode out highs and lows throughout the season. The smaller bars (refer to TT Assen and Czech) resemble races in which Oliveira maintained a competitive position and was able to reduce the back and forth battles with his opponents, ultimately persevering his energy, bike and tires. The trend line shows a slight positive slope meaning that his performance did not vastly improve or worsen throughout 2019, although he experienced a weaker Net vs Volatility in the second half of the season. Reducing this ratio is much easier said than done but we hope to see Oliveira strengthen his prey skills as he learns to defend his position from those behind.
Takeaway: Miguel Oliveira shows promise within these detailed indexes as he builds off a strong foundation. It is hard to teach an old dog new tricks but we believe that the young rider gained valuable experience within his first year with the big dogs and that an improvement in defensive skills may go a long way.
May 21st, 2020
MV12 2019 Pre-Season Trajectory
Prior to the 2019 season, the Grand Prix Scout team released pre-season trajectory analysis around the top 10 riders from the 2018 championship. One of those riders, Maverick Vinales, continued on his path to excellence and proved his ability to fine tune his riding with focus on the more minor, yet crucial details. The Spanish rider finished the 2019 championship in 3rd place just behind Andrea Dovizioso and Marc Marquez. Consistently battling with some of the most talented riders the series has ever seen, Vinales has proven time and time again that he not only deserves to be in the premier league, but that Yamaha made a very wise choice in re-signing him for an extended 2 year contract.
Today we are going to revisit Maverick’s 2019 pre-season trajectory analysis, allowing you to see where he started in March 2019 compared to where he ended in November 2019. The analysis touches on his performance rate of improvement as well as what we had hoped to see from him throughout the upcoming (2019) season. Needless to say, Vinales did not disappoint…
Maverick Vinales 2019 Pre-Season Trajectory
Heading into his third season with the Yamaha Factory team, Maverick Vinales shows a competitive trajectory after an impressive performance throughout the 2018 MotoGP season. Out of the top four placing riders from 2018, Vinales holds the strongest speed improvement rate based off his average speed index trendline slope. This steep slope reflects a consistent improvement each year in regards to sector times. Additionally, Vinales proved to be a strong competitor in regards to consistency where his lap to lap sector times had little variation. Can he maintain this linear progression?
Below we have provided graphs tracking both his average speed index as well as his average consistency index over time. These graphs represent an annual average with all races combined for the past 5 years. If you are unfamiliar with our indexes, a rider’s speed index is calculated from sector times for every circuit of every race. A rider’s consistency index quantifies their ability to keep consistency sector times on a lap by lap basis. For both indexes, a smaller value = faster sector times with little variation (high consistency).
Trendline Equation: y = -8.1905x + 660.62
Maverick Vinales raced with Team Suzuki in 2015 and 2016 before switching to the Yamaha Factory Team in 2017.
Trendline Equation: y = -0.1313x + 1.3388
What do we hope to see from Vinales going into the 2019 season? His progression rate over his four years in MotoGP is close to linear with a steep slope indicating significant improvement year to year. This does not mean that he holds the fastest or most consistent times, but it does show that his riding career is still evolving and not reaching a plateau in performance just yet. In order to stay ahead, we must see Vinales and Yamaha come together to utilize their strengths on specific areas of a circuit to claim a territory and push sector times, allowing Vinales to gain ground on his opponents. Consistency is important, but without competitive sector times a rider loses his chance at pulling ahead, checking out and leading the pack across the finish line.
May 19th, 2020
A Window Into the Past
Did you know that MotoGP is the oldest motorsport World Championship? Dating back to 1949, the series has seen numerous changes in classes offered, manufacturers included, circuit traveled to and World Champion level riders. To appreciate the series as it is today, we must acknowledge where it started, how it has changed and why.
Today’s DOTD is focusing exclusively on the history of the MotoGP series. Below we have provided a link to an in-depth article published on the MotoGP website that breaks the history down down by decade, riders and how the early 2000’s reshaped the sport we all know and love today.
Sit back, relax and enjoy a window into the past.
Click here to read up on the history of MotoGP racing.
May 14th, 2020
A Revisit to Jerez 2019
Although the first MotoGP race of the 2020 season has yet to be set in stone, fans, riders and teams clinch to the hopeful possibility that the season may kick off with back-to-back races in Jerez at the end of July. Now while many remember this Spanish circuit as Marc Marquez territory, that’s not to say that his numerous podium finishes have come easy to him.
2020 was projected to be highly competitive as seasoned riders refine their skills and the new kids on the block step up to challenge a few of the greatest of all time racers. We got a glimpse of this cut-throat, competitive grid last season and have faith that this year will bring even more action-packed races with those classic last lap battles that leaves everyone on the edge of their seats.
To celebrate the (tentative) plan of a 2020 season debut at Jerez, we want to look back to last year’s Spanish GP to study two riders that brought exceptional performances. Let’s revisit the post-race analysis that identifies key aspects of both Andrea Dovizioso’s and Maverick Vinales’s race performances.
Our Thought On Dovizioso and Vinales – Spanish GP 2019
May 8th, 2019
A second 4th place finish in a row for Ducati rider, Andrea Dovizioso and a comeback podium finish for Yamaha rider, Maverick Vinales – here are our thoughts and analysis on these performances from the Spanish Grand Prix.
Dovi Dovi Dovi…
Prior to the race, we wrote up a brief piece on Dovizioso explaining his past struggles in Jerez and what we needed to see from him going into the first European GP. Now I’m not sure if Dovizioso got his hands on our rider release but boy did he deliver! Starting off the grid in P4, the Ducati rider patiently stayed back, studied his opponents and preserved his tires before executing his plan of attack. So where did he excel on this circuit?
Everyone, meet sector 4, AKA Dovizoso territory!
AD held the strongest average consistency in sectors 2 and 4. He also held the fastest average sector 4 times. Why did this give him such a leg up? T4 is one of the longer sectors at this circuit meaning it gave Dovizioso more ground to exploit his strengths and pressure his opponents. Additionally, no other riders had such a strong combination in sector 4, meaning they either excelled in speed or consistency, but not both. While Dovizioso was able utilize T4 EACH lap, other riders relied on consistent, slow times or a mixed blessing of inconsistent times.
Maverick Vinales – We Missed You
It was nice to see Yamaha rider, Maverick Vinales, back on the podium this weekend at Jerez. It’s been a little while since we’ve seen Vinales in the top 3, and after a jump start penalty in Texas, the Spanish rider came into race weekend determined as ever.
What did we like about Maverick’s performance at Jerez?
Faster average times than we’ve seen from him this season, a solid average consistency that ranked him 3rd out of all the riders, anddddd a significantly stronger prey index! Vinales maintained a defensive riding style which allowed him to keep others from overtaking him. His indexes were not the strongest of the pack, but his improved prey-like technique complimented his smooth riding style and ultimately reflected the Vinales we’ve missed oh so much. Full steam ahead as we prepare for the French Grand Prix!
May 11th, 2020
Zarco Trajectory 360
From Yamaha, to KTM, to LCR Honda and now Ducati, Johann Zarco has covered a significant amount of ground since joining the premier league in 2017. The French rider had an incredible rookie and sophomore season in the MotoGP series, finishing 6th in the World Championship both years. He collected a handful of first row starts and podium finishes before joining the factory KTM team in 2019.
A rollercoaster start and early departure from KTM left Zarco without a seat partway through the 2019 season. But when Honda rider, Takaaki Nakagami had to undergo shoulder surgery, Zarco stepped in and finished off the 2019 season alongside fellow LCR rider, Cal Crutchlow.
It was unclear where Zarco would land for the 2020 season but with Karel Abraham moving on from MotoGP, a new seat on Ducati was open and fans now look forward to seeing Johann Zarco and Tito Rabat represent the Reale Avintia Racing team this summer. Many were skeptical of this move as Zarco has yet to match his competitive performance we saw from him on Yamaha. We are here to put these at bay as we acknowledge the areas that yes, Zarco has struggled with, but more importantly, where he has been putting in the work.
Let’s start with the pre-season trajectory rankings:
Consistency and Speed Trajectories – It is no secret that Zarco lost his competitive speed last season that had helped push him up the ranks in 2017 and 2018. This is very evident in his pre-season Speed Index trajectory as he ranks quite low compared to his opponents (15th out of the 15 riders). Here’s the thing, while everyone was focusing on his lack of speed last season, Zarco was actually making great strides in improving his Consistency Index. To put is simply, slower, more reserved sector times allowed him to polish the tedious yet critical skill sets. Ranked 3rd out of the 15 riders of study, Zarco has continued to fine tune this crucial aspect of riding that can ultimately make or break a race. One fast lap can place you high on the grid, but it is the riders that are able to put 20+ laps together with minimal fluctuation in sector times that come out on top. We hope to see Zarco maintain this secret weapon as he adapts to the Ducati and finds his groove and speed with the powerful machine.
Moving onto pre-season efficiency trajectory:
Efficiency Trajectory: Johann Zarco falls in the middle of the pack when it comes to the Efficiency Index Trajectory. Ranked 10th out of 15, Zarco’s trajectory index is positive, indicating that his Efficiency Index has gradually weakened since the start of 2017. This is not a big surprise as this unique index rewards riders for 4 complimentary performance factors:
1. A strong starting grid position
2. A positive net movement meaning they finished the race ahead of their starting position
3. A large net movement value which suggests they overtook a significant amount of their opponents
4. A lower volatility signifying productive movement
It is important to note that although Zarco holds a positive index, the uncertainty and rollercoaster of a career that he has endured has yet to crack him and he remains on a stronger path in regards to efficiency than 1/3 of his opponents. Throughout his career, Zarco has finished ahead of his starting positions 49% of the time which again, given his seemingly continuous shift in bike and team, is impressive.
If Zarco can find stability within the series in regards to bike and team adaptability and partnership, we may see a significant rise in his index trajectories as he enters his 4th year in the MotoGP series.
May 7th, 2020
Aleix and Andrea at Aragon
It’s Thursday, or as we like to call it, throw-back-thursday! Today’s DOTD is taking it back to the 2019 Aragon Grand Prix post-race analysis where we analyzed two riders with very different styles and techniques. Aleix Espargaro and Andrea Dovizioso had notably strong performances at the Motorland Aragon as they exposed the unique attributes and adaptability of their vastly different machines.
So sit back, relax and learn something new about Aleix and Andrea at Aragon.
While Marquez’s performance may be the trending topic of the week, there is also quite a bit of discussion around two other factory riders who walked away in good spirits. Ducati rider, Andrea Dovizioso and Aprilia rider, Aleix Espargaro both gave remarkable performances at MotorLand Aragon this past weekend. Today we are going to dive into what exactly these riders held over their opponents and where on the circuit they made the biggest impact. As always, we’ll keep it short and sweet!
Consistency and Speed Index Rankings by Sector
Starting 10th on the grid, Andrea Dovizioso had his eye on the podium from the beginning and did not let his poor qualifying position get in the way. By the 1st lap, Dovi had moved his way up 3 positions and continued to pick off opponents every 3 – 6 laps. Taking the time to study those ahead of him and utilizing the Ducati’s superior acceleration, Dovizioso recognized the optimal times to overtake without risking his speed or sector consistency.
It is no surprise to see that Dovi held the strongest speed index in sector 4 as the Ducati gave no mercy to other manufacturers down the notebly long straightaway. Making up significant time in this sector, Dovi continued to balance his performance throughout all sectors with superior consistency in areas where his speed was lacking. Maintaining a well-rounded performance through the shorter, technical sectors gave Dovi an advantage as these are usually perceived as Honda, Yamaha and Suzuki territory.
Aleix Espargaro was another one to utilize sector 4 with his strong consistency index that he managed to carry over into 2 of the remaining 3 sectors. Starting from the 2nd row of the grid, Aleix let the Aprilia rip and rode a perfect race with fluidity and harmony.
Although he was not able to carry a balance between speed and consistency in sector 1, the Spanish rider found his rhythm in the remaining 3 sectors with unmatched consistency and a surprising amount of speed for all 23 laps.
By the end, it came down to Aleix showing off the power hidden within the Aprilia and riding with a defensive mindset as he protected his position until the 17th lap when LCR Honda rider, Cal Crutchlow swooped in to take P6.
Dovizioso and A. Espargaro benefited greatly from holding such big advantages in regards to speed and consistency in sector 4. Standing as the longest sector of the circuit, this fast section allowed for Dovi to cover signficaint ground and for Aleix to defend his position.
Although the Aprilia and the Ducati carry very different characteristics, two riders with very different styles and techniques were able to succeed on this unique circuit and walk away knowing they both had a big impact on that race.
May 5th, 2020
The Evolution of Danilo Petrucci
One of the more seasoned riders currently in the series, Danilo Petrucci made his MotoGP debut back in 2012 at the Qatar Grand Prix. His strongest Championship finish was this past season (2019) where he finished 6th with 176 points, a slim 2 points ahead of fellow Italian rider, Valentino Rossi.
Petrucci has had 3 different teammates within Ducati since 2017 and earned a Factory seat going into the 2019 season alongside Andrea Dovizioso. While his overall season with the Factory team appeared to produce his strongest performance to date, there are many factors that dictate this assumption. If you are looking solely at his championship points then yes, this was in-fact his strongest season yet. If you look at his finishing position breakdown compared to his teammate, you may think otherwise.
Today we are going to break down Petrucci’s 2017, 2018 and 2019 seasons in terms of rider vs teammate performance. This is a very important and easily overlooked area to study around each rider. Each race performance carries a heavy weight on a rider’s future in the series. If you consistently finish behind your teammate, you may lose your seat when the next contract renewal comes around. If you maintain a strong performance across the entire season with little error, you may earn that Factory seat bump that Danilo Petrucci received going into the 2019 season. But if you want to keep that seat and the resources that come with a Factory team, you have to prove that you deserve that seat just as much, if not more than your teammate.
2017 was Petrucci’s second year alongside Scott Redding on the Satellite Ducati team. The finishing rate for each rider remained somewhat balanced but Petrucci ultimately finished ahead of Redding ~65% of the time across the entire 2017 season. This extra push we saw from Petrucci instilled faith in the Satellite team as we saw him continue with Ducati in 2018 and we saw Scott Redding make the jump to Aprilia.
2018 was a pivotal time for Petrucci as his contract was up for renewal, Lornezo’s Factory seat was up for grabs and Jack Miller was now in the next garage over as Petrucci’s new teammate. While the world was somewhat shook by the news of Lorenzo moving teams, all eyes zeroed in on the two Satellite riders as speculations spread around which rider, if either of them would make the jump to a Factory seat. While Miller had his time in the limelight, Petrucci ended the season with a ~71% finishing rate ahead of Miller and earned himself a seat on the Factory Ducati team.
2019 was a transition for Petrucci. He had the factory bike, the factory team and the guidance of his new teammate, Andrea Dovizioso, who was a top contender for the World Champion Title. As expected, Petrucci gradually adapted to his new machine and with time, reminded us why he earned the Factory seat when he took home his first MotoGP victory at Mugello. Petrucci had his highs and lows throughout but was unable to match his teammate as he finished the season with a ~21% finishing rate ahead of Dovizioso – a steep fall from the previous 2 years.
Takeaway: The battles that occur on the circuit go beyond just championship points. To be the best of the best, a rider must outshine their teammate, their whole manufacturer team (Factory and Satellite) and the riders stemming from their nationality. Danilo Petrucci has gradually climbed his way up the rankings by outperforming his teammates which explains his extensive time with Ducati and his jump to the Factory team. The expectations of a factory rider stand high and we hope to see Petrucci find his place within the Ducati Team that places him in a more secure, promising position in regards to his future as a Factory rider.
April 30th, 2020
Looking Through a Crystal Ball with Marquez and Vinales
We have some good news and we have some bad news… So let’s start with the bad.
The bad news is that the German, Dutch and Finnish GPs have all been canceled. The health and safety of not only the teams and riders but also the communities is the number one priority and so with that, we continue to wait for the start of the 2020 MotoGP season.
The good news is that Grand Prix Scout is continuing to bring you insightful analysis around all your favorite circuits, riders and teams! Since we will not be seeing riders take to the infamous Sachsenring Circuit this year, we thought today would be a great day to look back at our 2019 pre-race analysis for the German GP. Specifically, our thoughts on Marc Marquez and Maverick Vinales who entered the race weekend on a high note as they had both just locked down a podium finish at the Dutch Grand Prix.
To refresh your memory, the 2019 German GP ended with Marc Marquez crossing the checkered line a solid 4.5 seconds ahead of Maverick Vinales and 7.7 seconds ahead of fellow Honda rider, Cal Crutchlow who rounded out the podium. Marquez had fought hard for a pole position prior to race day and maintained a P1 position from start to finish. Vinales started from P3 and endured a handful of lap-to-lap battles with Crutchlow and Rins but ultimately came out on top with a 2nd place podium finish.
The pre-race analysis released by the Grand Prix Scout team identified a handful of very specific factors that could make or break both Marquez’s and Vinales’s podium finishes at the Sachsenring Circuit. Looking back, we are happy to confirm that our insight was spot on and our indexes provided a crystal ball into the German race weekend…
Below we have provided the analysis we released around each rider prior to the German Grand Prix. Enjoy!
They Delivered At Assen
Can They Maintain Their Momentum In Germany?
Maverick Vinales
Pumped up and ready for a comeback, Maverick VInales gave us a beautiful performance at the Dutch Grand Prix. Currently carrying the weight of the team on his shoulders (pssst Rossi where you at??), Maverick will need to replicate and round out the performance we saw from him last year in Germany. In 2018, Maverick landed the third podium position just 0.58 seconds behind his teammate, Valentino Rossi and 2.776 seconds behind the race winner, Marc Marquez. So when I say “round out” his performance, what exactly am I referring to?
Last year, Vinales owned T2 and T3. He held the strongest Speed Index in both sectors as well as the strongest Consistency Index in T2 and second strongest in T3. If the Yamaha rider can focus on matching his historical performance in T2 / T3 with T4, he will ultimately hold the upper hand against his opponents. Sector 4 is identified as the longest and most technical sector by our unique sector ranking index. Maintaining his momentum from sector 2 through sector 4 would allow Vinales to gain more ground on his competitors regardless of his position.
One last fun fact: Vinales holds a strong Prey Index at Sachsenring, meaning that in the past he has been successful in defending his lines and position. A strong start off the grid may just place Vinales in a promising podium position.
Marc Marquez
Can’t stop, won’t stop. Marquez is at it again with 7 podium finishes within the first 8 races of the season. The energy is high as the Repsol Honda team heads to Germany where they have been undefeated SIX yeares in a row. Yes, you heard me right. The young Spanish rider has taken every single pole and win at Sachsenring since 2013. I sure wouldn’t want to be in the same ring as Marc this weekend…
With a comfortable 44 point lead over Andrea Dovizioso, Marquez is slowly taking off in the Championship rankings. So what is it exactly that Marc brings to the circuit in Germany that allows him to, well, dominate?
I will tell you one thing, it is rarely his start off the grid. With the exception of 2017, Marquez has never maintained P1 from the grid through the first lap. In fact, his average position recorded for the first lap off the grid is P4. So his Prey Index is not so hot… maybe that explains his unmatched Predator Index. He often gets caught by his opponents but has an ability to study each competitor and ovetake at opportune times. Fun fact: his average lead over the finish line for the past six years is a 3.43 second gap.
Marc Marquez holds the strongest Speed Index at the Sachsenring Circuit (by far) and surely hasn’t been slacking on consistency. Marc and the team want all the points they can get, but if he pushes too hard to defend his title, we may see a similar race to that in Austin this past spring… Know your strengths and weaknesses but more importantly, know your opponent’s. In these situations, it is important to remember that a personal best is not the goal, but instead a strategic race to highlight your strengths in areas that others struggle.
April 28th, 2020
Efficiency Index Broken Down
Generally speaking, Grand Prix Scout’s Efficiency Index identifies a rider’s ability to make forward progress throughout a race. Within this single number lies a handful of very important, individual performance indexes that allow us to gain a broad view of each rider within a race. This unique index takes into account each rider’s performance in both free practice and qualifying as the starting grid position is used to weight/handicap the overall efficiency.
The Efficiency Index rewards riders for 4 complimentary performance factors:
1. A strong starting grid position
2. A positive net movement meaning they finished the race ahead of their starting position
3. A large net movement value which suggests they overtook a significant amount of their opponents
4. A lower volatility signifying productive movement
To help illustrate the tools used to build the Efficiency Index, we are going to examine the top 3 ranked riders (in Efficiency Index) from the 2019 American Grand Prix. We will identify what exactly about their performance contributed to a superior index why this ranked them so strongly.
#1 – Jack Miller, Pramac Ducati
- A 2nd row grid start is the first variable that bumped up Miller’s Efficiency Index. As we said before, the grid position is used to give credit to those who performed well prior to the Sunday race as they cranked out competitive times to place them high on the starting grid.
- Miller maintained a balanced Predator / Volatility Index ratio which indicates that every pass he made was effective and he did not endure tiring, back and forth battles with his opponents. Because of this, we can infer that his forward movement was efficient and his Prey Index was zero as he finished each lap either in the same position or ahead of the previous lap.
#2 – Alex Rins, Suzuki Ecstar
- Whereas Jack Miller was rewarded for his superior qualifying position, Alex Rins was actually penalized for a 3rd row start from P7. Although a 3rd row start is still a notable qualifying position, this identifies why the COTA winner who blew everyone’s minds away is ranked 2nd.
- Alex’s Predator / Volatility Index ratio is like Miller’s on steroids. He was able to maintain forward movement throughout the race as he swiftly crept from P7 to P1 with no backwards regression. His exceptionally matched Predator to Volatility ratio indicates methodical passes that allowed him to efficiently move forward with little wasted energy.
#3 – Francesco Bagnaia, Pramac Ducati
- The young Ducati rider may not have started from the front row or finished on the podium, but he is the 3rd and final rider who maintained forward movement between the flags with out any overtakes from one lap to the next. As you can see, a balanced Predator / Volatility Index ratio carries a significant weight on the Efficiency Index.
- Bagnaia started from P12 on the grid which he was rightfully penalized for as he had the weakest qualifying out of the 3 riders of study. But unlike the other 9 riders who qualified ahead of him, Bagnaia matched his Predator Index with an identical Volatility Index. As we know, this means he efficiently made passes while defending his position against those around him.
By analyzing these three riders, we are able to explore how each variable carries a unique weight on the Efficiency Index. Grid position, net movement (Predator vs Prey) and the level of volatility in a rider’s position all play a role in the development of this unique Index.
April 23rd, 2020
Secrets Behind Cross-Referenced Data
The analytical study of a complex system, such as MotoGP, cannot be pinned on a single deciding factor. While each factor, or in this case performance index, can be studied individually, it is when the indexes are put into a complex system, of many components, that it is fine tuned to offer a deeper insight to the racing world.
So with that said, today’s DOTD is going to examine a cross-referenced data set:
Average Net Movement by Circuit vs Top Historical Combined Index by Manufacturer
Let us break that down for you..
The “Average Net Movement by Circuit” is an index that was developed to supplement Grand Prix Scout’s circuit analysis. By tracking the net movement between riders from start to finish, we can better determine the profile of each circuit. From the data, we can infer that a circuit with a high net movement index is a more difficult circuit that holds less manufacturer advantage and rewards individual rider skill.
The “Top Historical Combined Index by Manufacturer” is simply the manufacturer that currently holds the strongest average Historical Combined Index for each circuit. This index is comprised of a Speed Index, handicapped by a Consistency Index.
The chart above represents all of the 2019 circuits along with the top (current) manufacturer in regards to Historical Combined Index. The circuits are ranked by rate of net movement, Catalunya being the circuit with the highest rate and Chang Int. Circuit being the circuit with the lowest rate. As we stated before, the circuit with the highest rate of passing, in this case Catalunya, is considered to be the hardest circuit as it experiences smaller gaps between riders and more rider-to-rider interaction.
From the chart we can see that Honda holds the strongest indexes for the top 3 most competitive circuits. Yes, they currently have the unstoppable Marc Marquez riding for them, but the analysis goes much deeper than that. The overall Honda domination within this chart tells us that the bike is adaptable to unique circuits and that the riders have the ability to utilize the bikes’ diverse set of characteristics to their full potential. This includes its agility through technical sections, its durability through repetitive deep braking, all backed with competitive acceleration out of corners.
It is no surprise that this chart portrays these 4 specific manufactures as we recognize them as the leading teams in the series. We hope to see Ducati, Suzuki and Yamaha move up the chart over time as they round out their bike profiles to improve their adaptability.
April 21st, 2020
Revisiting Mir and Suzuki
With Alex Rins announcing his 2 year contract extension with Suzuki Ecstar, all eyes fall on his sophomore teammate, Joan Mir. Mir has yet to announce any news around his contract going forward but based on his debut year performance, we have a good feeling about the young Spanish rider.
Today, we are going to revisit a piece that was published in the fall of 2019. Titled “Moving Through the Crowd with Suzuki,” this insightful article picks apart both Mir and Rins by studying their net movement between the flags. Because Alex Rins is out of the “contract hot seat,” we will be solely focusing on Joan Mir and his 2019 performance.
Enjoy!
Moving Through the Crowd with Suzuki
22 year old rookie, Joan Mir has had his ups and downs throughout his premier season but overall, his jump from Moto2 straight to a factory bike has shown great promise. There are a few telling signs reflected through his 2019 performance indexes and today we are going to identify one very unique pattern for both riders.
Let’s start big picture… Net movement refers to a rider’s total forward / backward movement throughout a race. For Grand Prix Scout, this means taking the difference between a rider’s Predator and Prey Index – how many opponents did they overtake vs how many did they let slip past?
A forward advancement requires strong predator skills where a rider studies the circuit, their opponents and the conditions to strategically overtake while preserving their bike, energy and tires. It also requires strong prey skills aka a strong defensive riding style. This means protecting lines in and out of corners and knowing your opponents attack techniques to think ahead and prevent passes.
Rookie Time – Joan Mir
For his first year in MotoGP and first year on a factory bike, Joan Mir shows great potential. His net movement vs final position are not too surprising as we can expect a rookie to ride out highs and endure the lows. Let’s start by stating the obvious. Joan’s graph shows something that Alex’s did not… A negative blue bar. This means that there were 3 times throughout his first season where his final race position ended behind from where he started on the grid.
What does this mean? Joan has yet to refine his prey skills which allows a rider to defend their position from those behind them. So his prey skills may not be fully developed, that’s okay! There were only 3 times this season where his position dropped and otherwise, Mir was able to make advancements forward and finish in the top 10 almost every single race. Although some races had very little movement forward, he was able to hold a strong race position and focus on the smaller battles within sectors that require studying your opponents and playing your skills to their weaknesses.
Joan Mir shows a strong trajectory going into the 2020 season with the Suzuki team and we believe that studying his teammate, Alex Rins, would pay off greatly as his net movement continues on a positive trajectory.
April 16th, 2020
It All Comes Full Circle
The anticipation is slowly consuming race fans as they await the start of the 2020 MotoGP season. This is not only fueled by the longing for 20+ lap battles between some of the most talented riders to date, but also by the unknowns that lie within the paddock… For example, contact renewals. Almost every single rider is up for a contract renewal and only a small handful of riders have announced a signing for 2021 or longer.
Throughout a season, riders are competing not only for individual championship points, but also team and manufacturer points. This can cause a continuous shift in pressure from one teammate to the other as they carry their weight and try to avoid becoming the “weak link.” The ongoing competition between two teammates is an often overlooked battle that begins in off-season testing and ends with the final race of the season. Each rider must not only defend their seat, but prove to their current team and competing teams that they deserve a ride for the next season.
It is not uncommon for a rider to fall in the shadow of their teammate and as it turns out, having two riders on a team earning double digit points is a big advantage in the team standings. Today we are going to rewind to October 2019 to see what the team standings were going into the 15th race of the season. Additionally, we provided the % of weight each rider was carrying throughout the season.
Note: since these rankings were originally released last year, a few riders have left the series, a few have signed contract renewals and a few have signed contracts with new teams…
Spoiler alert – the % weight next to each rider is very telling for their future.
1st Place:
Ducati Team, 357 points
57% Andrea Dovizioso / 43% Danilo Petrucci
2nd Place:
Repsol Honda Team, 333 points
90% Marc Marquez / 6.9% Jorge Lorenzo Remaining points: Stefan Bradl, test rider
3rd Place:
Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP, 284 points
52% Maverick Vinales / 48% Valentino Rossi
4th Place:
Team Suzuki Ecstar, 209 points
75% Alex Rins / 25% Joan Mir
5th Place:
Petronas Yamaha SRT, 203 points
61% Fabio Quartararo / 39% Franco Morbidelli
6th Place:
LCR Honda, 166 points
59% Cal Crutchlow / 41% Takaaki Nakagami
7th Place:
Pramac Racing, 146 points
80% Jack Miller / 20% Francesco Bagnaia
8th Place:
Red Bull KTM Factory Racing, 104 points
74% Pol Espargaro / 26% Johann Zarco
Mika Kallio, Zarco’s replacement has yet to earn points
9th Place:
Aprilia Racing Team Gresini, 78 points
59% Aleix Espargaro / 41% Andrea Iannone
10th Place:
Red Bull KTM Tech 3, 36 points
81% Miguel Oliveira / 19% Hafizh Syahrin
11th Place:
Reale Avintia Racing, 23 points
78% Tito Rabat / 22% Karel Abraham
April 14th, 2020
Pre-Race Watch List – Rewind to Jerez 2019
Throughout a (normal) season, the Grand Prix Scout team releases both pre and post-race analysis to help fans prepare for an event and later, help them understand what exactly happened and why. To give you a little taste of what that may look like, today’s Data Of The Day is revisiting the 2019 rider watch list for the Jerez Grand Prix. Think of it as a “who’s hot, who’s not” list where we examine a handful of the top riders, some of the “up and comers” and a few that are stuck on the struggle bus. So let’s explore 3 of the riders that were chosen for the watch list – 2 that fell within the “who’s hot” and 1 that fell within the “who’s not.”
We chose a total of 10 riders for the pre-race watch list: Marquez, Rins, Vinales, Dovi, Rossi, Petrucci, Morbidelli, Crutchlow, Lorenzo and Miller.
8 of the riders finished 1st – 8th while 1 crashed (Miller) and 1 finished mid-pack (Lorenzo)… Let’s just say these two weren’t a total surprise.
Alex Rins (who’s hot)
Circuit Weather Conditions – Advantage Rins
Suzuki rider Alex Rins has had a smooth sailing performance thus far in the 2019 season. Although we don’t have any historical data on Rins at Jerez, we believe he is capable of maintaining this forward momentum due to similarities in circuit conditions between COTA and Jerez. Let’s talk weather. Both COTA and Jerez have historically extreme circuit temperatures which often creates added challenges to teams and riders. Rins has proven to be one of the most fluid, smooth riders and has been taking the 2019 season by storm. This is not to say that he has been on the podium each time but instead has shown fans and his opponents an upgraded version of his previous self – Rins 2.0. What do we like about Rins 2.0? His predator riding style that has enabled him to overtake numerous riders each race, his seamless movement in and out of turns and his ability to preserve tires through the finish line. The Suzuki rider’s success is a mosaic of variables that we are able to better understand each race weekend.
Andrea Dovizioso (who’s hot)
Pole Position Please!
Jerez has not always been kind to Ducati rider, Andrea Dovizioso. Having a historically rough qualifying, we have yet to see Dovi on the front row of the grid. A strong performance in both free practice and qualifying will be vital if he wants to obtain enough points to remain the leader in the World Championship rankings. Does this mean Dovizioso NEEDS to be on the front row to try to lock in a podium finish? Heck no! AD has a historically superior predator index at Jerez meaning he has learned how to strategically study riders ahead of him to better understand how he can most efficiently utilize his skills. Due to Dovizioso’s unique ability to handle both the powerful AND the (less well-known) agile side of the Ducati, we believe Dovi shows promise going into race week as this circuit requires precision in breaking and acceleration points.
Jack Miller (who’s not)
Eye On The Prize
Jack freaking Miller! After an incredible performance at COTA ranking him 6th in the Championship, Miller can just about taste that Factory Ducati seat. So what does Miller have working for and against him? Let’s pick one of each… Good news: Jack Miller held the strongest consistency index at Jerez in 2018. Bad news: circuit temperatures in Jerez have historically been extremely elevated, forcing riders to strategically nurse their tires throughout the race. COTA presented shockingly high circuit temperatures and what we saw there from Miller doesn’t bode well for Jerez. Having barely any tire left by the last lap in Texas, Miller was basically a sitting duck as Dovizioso tailed him. If Miller wants to continue his success this coming weekend, we will need to not only see a stronger tire choice, but also a smoother performance from him as this circuit demands fluidity due to its configuration and climate conditions.
April 9th, 2020
Reflecting Back on Quartararo’s Path to Rookie of the Year
It wasn’t too long into the 2019 season before the young French rookie, Fabio Quartararo began catching people’s eye. He took a few races to ease into the series with the Petronas Yamaha SRT team before cranking out a total of 6 pole positions and 7 podium finishes.
Today we are going to reflect back on an analytical piece we published on June 25th, 2019. Titled “Is Quartararo On The Path To Rookie Of The Year,” this piece analyzes Fabio’s spring performance and compares it to the two prior Rookies Of The Year, Franco Morbidelli and Johann Zarco.
Is Quartararo On The Path To Rookie Of The Year?
Riding for the Petronas Yamaha team, 20 year old Fabio Quartararo is coming into his first MotoGP season HOT. Currently ranked 7th in the World Championship rankings, the young French rider is a slim 2 points behind Ducati rider, Jack Miller. With 2 pole positions and 1 podium finish already under his belt, the 2019 Rookie of the Year title is looking very promising for Quartararo.
His momentum appears to be moving fast and gaining more power each race, but how does his rate of improvement compare to the 2017 and 2018 Rookies of the Year? In other words, how does Quartararo’s performance in the first 7 races compare to Zarco’s in 2017 and Morbidelli’s in 2018?
Let’s start general and then dive into the nitty gritty details… Johann Zarco, Franco Morbidelli and Fabio Quartararo all acquired 1 DNF within the first 7 races of their debut season. During this time, Zarco earned one P3 grid position and Morbidelli earned no front row grid positions. Fast forward to this season, Quartararo has already earned two P1 grid positions and one P2! Like I said, he’s coming in hot…
Morbidelli vs Zarco
In 2018, Morbidelli’s rate of improvement for his combined index in the first 7 races was 0.0229. To put this into context, Zarco’s rate of improvement in 2017 for the same 7 races was 0.0055. So what in the world does this mean? Franco Morbidelli showed a faster rate of improvement each race than Johann Zarco during their rookie years. Zarco’s combined index had smaller refinement each race while Morbidelli took greater strides in improving his.
Although Morbidelli showed a steeper improvement slope, Johann Zarco started his MotoGP career stronger and ultimately did not need to rely on a fast improvement rate. Averaging 5th place for the first 7 races, Zarco stood among some of the top riders right from the get-go. On the contrary, Morbidelli averaged 14th place for his first 7 races and relied heavily on a quick adaption and improvement to snag the Rookie of the Year title.
Where does Quartararo fall into the mix?
So far, Quartararo seems to be the best of both worlds. His rate of improvement is almost identical to Morbidelli’s in 2018 at 0.0268. Similar to Morbidelli, Fabio has been able to adapt to the bike, study his opponents and take each race as a learning experience. He has averaged a finishing position of 8.5, a more similar ranking to that of Johann Zarco in 2017.
There are many reasons to be excited about the potential that the young French rider shows this season. One I would like to highlight is the momentum the MotoGP series shows in bringing up new talent each year. We have a yet to see a plateau in the sport and riders such as the three studied above are a prime example of how MotoGP can and will continue to push boundaries.
Identifying unique talent within the series is one of our goals when bringing race fans in-depth analysis. Never stop learning and continue to push boundaries.
Next stop. TT Circuit Assen!
April 7th, 2020
Numbers Don’t Lie – VR46 Efficiency
MotoGP legend, Valentino Rossi confirmed that he will be re-evaluating his racing career throughout the 2020 season. While his passion and presence helps fuel the series, his performance has taken a slight detour over the past two seasons. Although energy and motivation don’t rely solely on race success, it sure doesn’t hurt! Especially for a 9 time World Champion.
With the early disruption in the 2020 season due to COVID-19, fans impatiently await not only the first MotoGP race, but an update from the 41 year old Italian rider regarding his future in the series.
Today we are going to explore a unique angle of Valentino Rossi’s historical performance. Say hello to Grand Prix Scout’s Efficiency Index. This index tracks a rider’s ability to maintain forward momentum throughout a race by taking into account factors such as their performance in qualifying and volatility in position, to name a few. We have tracked Rossi’s average Efficiency Index on both an annual and circuit basis. The graphs below provide a visual representation of his performance trajectory, allowing you to see how he has progressed over the past 4 years and on what specific circuits.
Note: A smaller index (a more negative number) represents a stronger efficiency.
To keep the excitement of a new season alive, we have focused solely on the first 6 races of the past 4 years. These include Qatar, Argentina, COTA, Jerez, France and Mugello.
VR Average Efficiency vs Season
It is evident that Rossi’s efficiency has weakened over the past 4 years. A poor average qualifying, higher volatility in position throughout a race and backwards movement from start to finish all contribute to this elevated average value. With that said, Rossi’s average indexes all fall under 0 which indicates that he finishes ahead of his starting position more times than not. Taking a step back and thinking big picture, it appears Rossi has encountered more riders stepping up to challenge the 9 time World Champion and has gradually been engulfed in the pack.
VR Average Efficiency vs Circuit
This graph clearly has more fluctuation than the first, so let’s pick it apart… The first detail to note is that Rossi’s average efficiency at Mugello (his home circuit) falls above 0. Unfortunately, this means that he has been unable to match a superior qualifying position with a productive race, meaning he often falls into the sea of riders and endures more frequent, tiring battles with riders mid-pack. On the contrary, the remaining 5 circuits all hold a negative average efficiency which tells us that Rossi maintains a more consistent performance throughout the weekend with visible forward momentum. Qatar, COTA, Jerez and France all fall within a small range of each other which we would hope to see carry over to the remaining circuits.
Overall, Rossi shows a weakening trend in regards to his efficiency throughout a race weekend. More times than not, he is still maintaining forward momentum between the flags but shows notable fluctuation from one circuit to the next.
Remember, this is only one area of study in regards to Rossi’s historical performance and future projections. With that said, you may agree that this index holds significant weight in a rider’s performance review as it uncovers a handful of commonly overlooked traits.
April 2nd, 2020
What We Could Have Expected This Weekend At COTA
This weekend would have been the 4th round of the 2020 season as riders and teams would be preparing for the Texas GP at the Circuit of the Americas. While our team wishes we could be arriving in Austin for our home GP, it’s time to do our part in social-distancing and instead, re-watch all our favorite races from over the years.
If COTA was still a go, we would be releasing our pre-race weather analysis right about now. So instead, let’s revisit the brief weather profile that was created specifically for the unique Circuit of the Americas…
“Can you feel the heat? I’m talking about the heat coming off the asphalt circuit in those early afternoon hours! As a transitional month for this region into a wetter, hot summer, COTA experiences little convective activity which results in full exposure for incoming solar radiation to reach Earth’s surface. With scorching circuit temperatures and warm, moist winds traveling up from the Gulf of Mexico that result in humid conditions, the Grand Prix of the Americas is a fitness test for all MotoGP riders and bikes. These conditions require riders to nurse their tires throughout the race to protect their grip and traction as they fly around this unique circuit. With extremely varying characteristics, COTA is considered one of the most technical circuits by many riders. Pairing the challenging configuration with demanding weather conditions, riders must enter the weekend ready to battle while preserving their bodies and their tires.”
March 31st, 2020
A Day To Remember for Danilo Petrucci
The first time racing in the premier league at your home circuit always brings a feeling of overwhelming happiness and pride. The first time sealing a 1st place finish at your home circuit takes that feeling to a whole other level.
Let’s take it one step further. The first time winning a MotoGP race at your home circuit which also happens to be the home to your manufacturer… Just ask Danilo Petrucci how that feels. The 2019 Italian Grand Prix was an emotional day for both Petrucci and Ducati as they claimed their first ever victory together at the Mugello Circuit.
Today we are going to rewind to that unforgettable Sunday afternoon and re-share our post-race analysis on Danilo. Enjoy!
It was an emotional weekend at the Mugello Circuit that ended with Ducati rider, Danilo Petrucci, earning his first win since joining the MotoGP series in 2012. Helping the factory Ducati team claim a third 1st place podium at Mugello in a row, Petrucci made not only his team and his country proud, but also his teammate and mentor, Andrea Dovizioso.
Rate of Improvement at Mugello – 1 Point Petrucci
Compared to the two other podium riders this weekend, Danilo Petrucci holds the strongest rate of improvement for combined index at the Mugello Circuit. Remember, a combined index reflects a rider’s historical speed handicapped by their consistency. So what does a steep rate of improvement mean?
This graph plots Petrucci’s combined index for each year he completed a race at Mugello while in the series. With the exception of 2016, Petrucci has maintained an almost perfectly linear improvement every single year he’s raced.
A steeper slope reflects more significant improvements year to year. Being able to identify areas of strengths and weaknesses over time, Petrucci has prioritized his performance goals every year. This has not only enabled him to perfect his riding on this circuit, but to also study his opponents and establish where he can confidently overtake other riders.
March 26th, 2020
2020 Jerez Grand Prix Postponed – Let’s Rewind to 2019 with Alex Rins
The first European race of the season has officially been postponed and with no reschedule announced, fans await to hear when we will see riders take to the Circuito de Jerez once more. While we continue to wait for the start of the 2020 season, we can rewind to last year’s season openers to re-live the thrill and drama that fuels the unique sport.
Today we are going to revisit the post-race analysis we released about Suzuki star, Alex Rins, just after he snagged a 2nd place finish at the Spanish GP.
May 6th, 2019
Alex Rins – Taking 2019 by Storm
P9 to P2 within 25 laps. How does Alex Rins continuously climb his way through the pack each race? It seems to be a mystery… not! Read on Rins fans.
Let’s focus on Alex’s predator / prey index which tied Rossi’s for 1st out of the group. Jumping from P9 to P6 right off the grid, Rins’s predator mindest is clearly reflected in the pattern of his riding. Holding his temporary position for 3-5 laps each time he makes a pass, Rins patiently studies the riders ahead of him, as to not waste any passing opportunities. While some riders try to overtake at any given chance, Rins gives himself a few laps to better understand who he is up against at that moment and how he can utilize his smooth, unique riding style to challenge others. He realizes that at that moment, all that matters is gaining that one position ranking. We are thouroughly impressed by this mature, methodical thinking from such a “green” rider as we often see this from more seasoned riders who are fine tuning their skill sets.
March 25th, 2020
2019 Argentina GP Flashback – Crutchlow Vs. Marquez
Although we may not see riders on the Termas de Rio Hondo Circuit for quite some time, we decided to flashback to the 2019 Argentina Grand Prix. The race weekend never disappoints in Argentina as each race keeps spectators on the edge of their seats and teams (stressfully) sit back to watch as riders fight for the valuable, early season championship points.
Below we have provided last year’s race recap that focuses exclusively on Marc Marquez and Cal Crutchlow – two incredible riders, two very different outcomes…
April 1st, 2019
Both Crutchlow and Marquez showed great promise going into the race weekend but after a controversial jump start, Crutchlow was penalized with a ride through penalty. While some believe it was a deserved accusation, many believe it was, let’s just say… BS, and cost him a podium finish at the Termas de Rio Hondo.
Although Crutchlow was directed to ride through the pit lane, his performance for the remaining laps was a phenomenal way to stick it to the officials as he climbed his way through the pack and ended in 13th place.
On the contrary, Factory Honda rider Marc Marquez got a strong start off the grid, pulled ahead and checked OUT! Setting a fast race pace, Marquez lead the group for all 25 laps and earned his first 1st place finish of the 2019 season.
So how did their performances compare? With such contrasting positions, these two had surprisingly similar performance indexes.
All Sectors Combined:
Combined Indexes:
- Marquez: 0.050
- Crutchlow: 0.166
Although Crutchlow got heavily penalized for his jump start, a combination of his comparable race pace to the pack leader (Marquez) and his strong sector consistency not only allowed him to climb through the pack, but it also resulted in him bringing home the second strongest combined index of the group.
As we so clearly saw on Sunday, Marquez maintained an incredible pace throughout the entire race. Although his speed was superior to his opponents, his consistency for all sectors combined was not as competitive. While we can attribute this to his historical struggle of maintaining a high level of consistency, we must remember that when a rider has pulled ahead from the pack, consistency becomes less essential and staying on the bike at a safe pace becomes the goal.
Crutchlow: A man on a mission
We can confidently say that Crutchlow was on a MISSION after his ride through penalty. Having to climb his way from the back, Crutchlow’s pace was something worth noting. Holding the second fastest sector 1 cumulative time, the fastest sector 2 cumulative time, the fifth fastest sector 3 cumulative time and the third fastest sector 4 cumulative time, Crutchlow reminded us why he was on our MVP list.
No one could have predicted Crutchlow’s penalty but it is fair to say that if he hadn’t received it, we would have seen the Honda rider fighting for a podium position.
With two very different starts off the grid, we were happily surprised to see Cal Crutchlow produce a similar performance to the current World Champion, Marc Marquez. We hope to see Crutchlow come back strong at the upcoming GP in Austin, Texas where Marc Marquez has historically DOMINATED.
Good luck to both Honda teams, we’ll see you in Texas!
March 19th, 2020
Jerez Action 2019
The entire world is feeling the ripple effects of the Coronavirus and because of that, individuals are forced to adapt to the whole “take it day by day” agenda. It is no secret that this has greatly affected the sports industry and the MotoGP racing series is no exception. With the seemingly endless off-season creeping its way through March, the first scheduled GP now stands as Sunday, May 3rd at the Circuito de Jerez.
The possibility of Jerez being postponed to later in the season is not unlikely as Thailand, Texas and Argentina have all been pushed to the fall. But until we are told that the calendar has undergone another revision, we are going to keep pushing on and help you all prepare for the infamous Jerez Grand Prix. And what better way to prepare for this year’s season opener (fingers crossed) than to look back at last year’s action!
Here are 3 quick facts about the top 4 finishers from last year’s Jerez GP…
They all stemmed from varying manufacturers:
1st Place- Marc Marquez, Repsol Honda
2nd Place – Alex Rins, Suzuki Ecstar
3rd Place – Maverick Vinales, Monster Energy Yamaha
4th Place – Andrea Dovizioso, Mission Winnow Ducati
There was a weak balance between consistency and speed across all 4 finishers:
A champion is one who can match superior speed with competitive consistency. Both variables will fluctuate race to race given the unique circuit qualities and weather conditions but those who consistently land on the podium have unparalleled indexes. The top 4 riders from the 2019 Jerez GP followed an all too familiar trend… Those with the stronger Speed Indexes held the weaker Consistency Indexes and vice versa. So who came out on top of each index?
| Speed Index | Consistency Index |
| Marquez | Dovizioso |
| Rins | Vinales |
| Vinales | Rins |
| Dovizioso | Marquez |
The Combined Index broken down by sector favored Marquez:
Grand Prix Scout’s unique indexing system allows us to study riders on both a circuit level as well as a sector level. When we study riders by Combined Index for each sector, we are taking into account their sector speed handicapped by their sector consistency. This allows us to see where exactly on a circuit a particular rider prevailed. Let’s see who dominated each sector by Combined Index..
Sector 1: Marquez
Sector 2: Petrucci
Sector 3: Marquez
Sector 4: Vinales
2019 was Marc Marquez’s year as he took the series by storm. But after the off-season testing results and Marquez’s lengthy shoulder surgery recovery, the 2020 season seems to have a handful riders ready to challenge the reigning champion. Time will tell… Stay healthy and keep an eye on the MotoGP calendar!
March 17th, 2020
Takaaki Nakagami vs Twin Ring
It is always a privilege to watch a rider compete for those precious championship points at their home circuit. For Japanese rider, Takaaki Nakagami, this honor comes once every season when he goes back to his roots to race at his home circuit, the Twin Ring Motegi.
Nakagami is entering is his 3rd year in the premier series with the LCR Honda team alongside MotoGP veteran, Cal Crutchlow. His first two seasons in MotoGP have shown gradual progression with significant improvement in final season standings. Nakagami ended his rookie year in 20th with 33 championship points and took it to the next level in 2019 as he finished in 13th place with 74 points. Keep in mind that Nakagami underwent shoulder surgery late into the 2019 season and missed the last 3 races.
Today’s question: how did Nakagami’s performance at the Twin Ring compare from his rookie year to his sophomore year?
The Good and The Bad
The 2018 and 2019 Japanese Grand Prix shared a few similarities for Nakagami but overall alluded to an important trend in the progression of his career.
Neither GP resulted in a competitive Efficiency Index for Nakagami as he not only ended behind of his starting grid position, but he also endured a handful of back and forth battles between his opponents. This means that he had high volatility between the flags as he was unable to execute clean, productive passes and was ultimately engulfed in the sea of riders. Long story short, Nakagami did not improve his Efficiency Index from 2018 to 2019 at the Twin Ring Motegi as he had a weak qualifying, experienced a high volatility and ended the race behind of where he started.
Nakagami’s rookie year debut at his home circuit produced a competitive Speed Index. In fact, his Speed Index in 2018 ranks higher than that in 2019. On the contrary, Nakagami’s Consistency Index was significantly stronger in 2019 vs 2018. So what does this mean?
We often expect rookies to either come in hot to the series, guns blazing with fairly competitive speed but compromised consistency, or conservative speed but a solid foundation in the consistency department. Takaaki Nakagami shows a little bit of both trends from his rookie to his sophomore year at his home circuit.
After completing his first year in the series, it appears Nakagami took a step back and reevaluated his training priorities. Without consistency, fast lap times mean nothing between the flags. It is evident that Nakagami shows early signs of maturity in his riding as he has refocused and worked towards maintaining a more consistent performance, even if that means takes his speed down a notch.
March 12th, 2020
In The Sea of Moto2, Who Stands Out?
Given that the 2020 season is continuously undergoing postponement and reschedules, Grand Prix Scout now has the ability to dig deeper into the Qatar GP performance stats within the Moto2 series. Earlier this week we covered riders who maintained superior Consistency and Speed Indexes across each sector. Today, we are going to explore a different set of indexes, those being the Predatory, Prey and Efficiency Indexes.
If you are unfamiliar with these three unique indexes or need a little refresh, here’s a brief description of each:
Predator Index: How well a rider can study his opponents and pick off other riders, maintaining forward momentum each lap
Prey Index: How well a rider can maintain a defensive riding style to block others from passing and hold a position
Efficiency Index: A rider’s ability to make forward progress throughout a race with few back and forth battles with other riders (aka low volatility)
To learn more about Grand Prix Scout’s indexing system, click here.
Below we have ranked the top 3 riders for each index from the opening 2020 GP in Qatar. Additionally, we have provided a few words to help paint a picture around the strongest riders.
Predator Index:
- Tetsuta Nagashima – Maintained the strongest offensive riding style from start to finish as he climbed his way through the pack and by the end, picked off 13 opponents
- Thomas Luthi
- Aron Canet
Prey Index:
- Jake Dixon – Made notable forward advancement throughout the race without letting anyone overtake his position as he maintained a defensive riding style
- Simone Corse
- Stefano Manzi
Efficiency Index:
- Jake Dixon – Held the strongest/lowest volatility out of all the riders as each pass was successful and he only experienced forward movement between the flags
- Tetsuta Nagashima
- Lorenzo Baldassarri
March 10th, 2020
Hidden Gems Among Moto2
The 2020 season has officially started and although the Moto2 riders carried the weight of the season opener on their shoulders, they pulled through and exceeded all expectations. Tetsuta Nagashima left fans and fellow riders in awe with his dominant performance which included him starting from P11 on the grid and finishing 1.347 seconds ahead of all his opponents.
It was not an easy task to pull off a podium finish as the riders who crossed the checkered flag 2nd – 5th were a slim 0.554 seconds apart. Lorenzo Baldassarri and Enea Bastianini rounded out the podium with Roberts and Gardner close behind.
It’s not uncommon for podium finishers to receive copious amounts of coverage, after all, they followed through on the universal mission to finish ahead of the pack. But today, we want to broaden the coverage and identify those who maintained a well-rounded performance, regardless of their final position.
It’s only the first race of the season and racers often rise and fall from one race to the next. By recognizing those who were able to match superior sector speed with consistency, we can highlight those who are building off a strong foundation and showing early signs of maturity in their race strategy and technique. In addition, we are able to highlight those who dominate in one category to track their performance and development going forward.
2 out of the 3 riders that are considered to be the most “well rounded” ended the season opener on the podium. Their hard work paid off, but where exactly on the circuit did they excel? Let’s find out.
Below we have identified a few key factors:
1. Sector Technicality Index rank – based off Grand Prix Scout’s unique circuit stats
2. Sector length rank – holding superior indexes in a longer sector gives a rider an upper hand as they automatically have more ground to utilize their strengths and pull away from opponents
3. Top 3 riders ranked by both Speed Index and Consistency Index – within this, we will identify riders who maintained a well-rounded performance meaning they were able to match speed with consistency
Sector 1: Shortest, least technical sector
| Rank | Speed Index | Consistency Index |
| 1 | Nagashima | Dixon |
| 2 | Luthi | Corsi |
| 3 | Schrotte | Bulega |
Sector 2: Second shortest, second most technical sector
| Rank | Speed Index | Consistency Index |
| 1 | Roberts | Bastianini |
| 2 | Baldassarri | Roberts |
| 3 | Navarro | Baldassarri |
Sector 3: Second longest, second least technical sector
| Ranks | Speed Index | Consistency Index |
| 1 | Gardner | Bastianini |
| 2 | Bastianini | Manzi |
| 3 | Nagashima | Navarro |
Sector 4: Longest, most technical sector
| Rank | Speed Index | Consistency Index |
| 1 | Nagashima | Canet |
| 2 | Baldassarri | Bastianini |
| 3 | Navarro | Baldassarri |
February 25th, 2020
Jorge Lorenzo vs Catalunya
He was on Yamaha, moved to Ducati, moved to Honda, retired and is now back as a test rider for the Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP racing team! Jorge Lorenzo is no stranger to the circuit as he has claimed 5 World Champion titles, 3 of which were in the premier series.
The latest news around the legendary Spanish rider is that he will wildcard at this year’s Catalunya GP. What does this mean? We will once again see the dynamic duo (Lorenzo and Yamaha) back on the grid among some of the most talented riders in recent racing history. It goes without saying that fans across the world are eager to see how these two perform together in a race setting once again. The last 3 years have been quite the rollercoaster for Lorenzo but now that he is back in the arms of Yamaha, we may just see something click.
Today we are going to examine Jorge Lorenzo’s historical performance at Catalunya to identify what exactly sets him apart from his opponents. Since 2012, Lorenzo has either finished 1st, 4th or crashed at Catalunya and spoiler alert, he’s finished very strong a majority of the time. Let’s dive in!
The Catalunya Circuit is very unique in that it encompasses basically every type of circuit attribute a rider could encounter. This includes (and is not limited to) a long straightaway, long double-apex turns, tighter back-to-back technical corners and a very balanced ratio of left vs right corners. Because of this, each sector demands a different approach from riders and pushes them to prove the adaptability of their machines. Bikes that had previously been labeled hard handling power machines must be harnessed to show a more agile profile and vice versa.
Over the years, Lorenzo has excelled in the consistency department which is even more important on a circuit such at Catalunya. Being able to maintain a superior consistency across all sectors of such a diverse circuit gave Lorenzo an advantage as his opponents struggled to match his well-rounded riding style. We should note that Lorenzo was successful at Catalunya on both Yamaha and Ducati – two bikes with very different profiles that Lorenzo managed to morph into a “jack of all trades” machines.
When Lorenzo is able to match his consistency and adaptability with superior speed, that is when we see him prevail against all others. But remember, even without the top speed you can usually find him in the mix of the top 5 riders… This 2020 M1 is said to have improved their acceleration and top speed which fairs well for Lorenzo.
For now, we will continue to wait for the MotoGP riders to take to the circuit as the 2020 calendar has changed due to travel restrictions resulting from the rapid spread of the Coronavirus. First stop, Austin!
March 3rd, 2020
Moto2 and Moto3 Cross Check
As the Moto2 and Moto3 riders carry the weight of the season opener on their shoulders, the MotoGP riders, teams and fans wait patiently for the start of the race weekend.
So let’s narrow in a select few riders from both Moto2 and Moto3… Today, we are going to cross check 2019 Qatar data with 2020 Qatar Test data to get an idea as to who has a strong foundation and out of those, who is rapidly building off of that this year. To be more specific, we are going to identify the top 5 riders from each series who:
- Fall within the top 10 ranked riders after the 3 combined days of testing at Qatar
AND - Maintained a superior Consistency Index in last year’s (2019) Qatar Grand Prix
This cross check will allow us to identify riders who have already established a strong foundation in regards to maintaining consistency throughout a race and have recently proved their ability to match it with superior lap times. Remember, it takes more than 1 fast lap to win a race. A certain level of consistency is crucial for a rider to lead the pack.
Watch List:
| Moto2 | Moto3 |
| Remy Gardner | Ai Ogura |
| Marcel Schrotter | Tony Arbolino |
| Enea Bastianini | John McPhee |
| Aron Canet | Albert Arenas |
| Joe Roberts | Raul Fernandez |
February 25th, 2020
Pre-Season Trajectories vs Pre-Season Testing
The pre-season testing has officially ended which means that the opening GP is just around the corner! Each testing event allows the teams to experiment with parts, finalize bike set up and gain a better understanding of where they stand going into the season.
Yamaha dominated the final test weekend in Qatar with Maverick Vinales leading the pack and the two Petronas riders rounding out the top three. Suzuki star, Alex Rins kept a high profile as he ended the weekend in 4th and Jack Miller sealed 5th position as the highest ranked Ducati.
So, let’s talk data! Grand Prix Scout offers a unique collection of pre-season trajectory rankings that track the rate of improvement for each rider’s historical performance and offer an outlook for the upcoming season. Today we are going to focus on the Speed Index Trajectory Rankings as they align closely with the results from the Qatar Test this past weekend.
Three out of the top five riders from the Qatar Test stand as the top ranked riders for Speed Index Trajectory. Franco Morbidelli, Alex Rins and Jack Miller all show a strong improvement rate going into the 2020 season as they challenge the more seasoned riders who have previously dominated the series. Because of this, we are not surprised to see these three riders who stem from different manufactures all fall within the top five fastest riders of the Qatar Test weekend.
| Rank | Pre-Season Speed Index Trajectory Ranking | Qatar Test Results (Combined Days) |
| 1 | Franco Morbidelli | Maverick Vinales |
| 2 | Alex Rins | Franco Morbidelli |
| 3 | Jack Miller | Fabio Quartararo |
| 4 | Tito Rabat | Alex Rins |
| 5 | Takaaki Nakagami | Jack Miller |
Numbers don’t lie – Grand Prix Scout is here to put these numbers into context to educate users and enhance the MotoGP viewership experience.
February 20th, 2020
Losail Awaits
As riders head to Qatar for the final pre-season test and with the infamous Losail season opener officially 2 weeks away, we though it was only fitting to revisit the 2019 Qatar Grand Prix.
Today we are going to break it down by sector. More specifically, we are going to identify the strength of the grid as a whole on each sector. By taking all the riders into consideration, we are able to gain a broader view of the circuit, its attributes and how each sector challenges riders.
Below we have ranked sectors 1 – 4 by cumulative rider strength in Speed Index and Consistency Index. If you need a refresher of Grand Prix Scout’s performance indexing system, click here!
Please note: sectors are identified by “T#” so T1 = sector 1, T2 = sector 2, etc…
| Rank | Speed Index | Consistency Index |
| 1st | T4 | T2 |
| 2nd | T3 | T3 |
| 3rd | T1 | T4 |
| 4th | T2 | T1 |
Observations:
Sector 1: T1 stands as perhaps not the most competitive, but the most challenging sector as both the Speed Index and Consistency Index rank low compared to the others. This means that the grid as a whole does not shine in speed or consistency. Instead, T1 favors specific riders and their abilities to exploit their particular bike’s strengths.
Sector 2: T2 shows a common pattern in that the entire grid is able to produce consistent sector times but they have not all mastered balancing superior consistency with a competitive speed. Although it is a shorter sector, it offers those who are able to step up their speed a great advantage over their opponents.
Sector 3: Those who excel in T3 are given a slight advantage as it stands as the 2nd longest sector. This means that there is that much more ground to outshine opponents and create larger gaps between you and those behind you. T3 is a battle ground for the grid as it ranks 2nd in both Speed Index and Consistency Index strength. A more evenly matched playing field, T3 demands a strong balance between the two variables in order to prevail and ultimately, utilize the length of the sector to pull ahead.
Sector 4: T4 is long and fast, as it includes wider turns and longer straightaways. It is no surprise that this is the strongest sector for the grid in terms of speed, but it is the riders who are able to maintain consistency one lap after another who will prevail here. A quick acceleration into the final straightway is always helpful, but it takes control and uniformity of corner entry and exit to tie the final sector together.
February 18th, 2020
2019 Rookie Review – Bagnaia vs Oliveira
The 2019 rookies took the series by storm as they exceeded expectations and continuously lit fires under some of the more seasoned rider’s seats. All four of the rookies had their time in the limelight and will remain with the same teams for the 2020 season. Here’s a quick reminder of the 2019 rookies AKA the 2020 sophomores:
- Fabio Quartararo – Petronas Yamaha SRT
- Francesco Bagnaia – Pramac Racing
- Joan Mir – Team Suzuki Ecstar
- Miguel Oliveira – Red Bull KTM Tech 3
Today we are going to focus on Bagnaia and Oliveira as they slipped in and out of Quartararo’s and Mir’s shadows throughout the season. They may not have consistency finished within the top 8 or received the support of a factory team but they both made great strides in defending their seat and their worth in the premier series.
Below we have provided three separate charts to compare Bagnaia’s and Oliveira’s performance indexes. To be more specific, their Speed Indexes, Consistency Indexes and Combined Indexes for each completed race.
If you are unfamiliar with Grand Prix Scout’s unique indexing system, visit our Index Library by clicking here!
Please note:
– A smaller index reflects a stronger performance, i.e. faster, more consistent sector times
– The numbers on the X (horizontal) axis identify each GP of the 2019 season (1-19)
– Blue bars represent Oliveira
– Orange bars represent Bagnaia
It is evident that Oliveira had a much higher finishing rate compared to Bagnaia in the first half of the season. In addition, Miguel Oliveira showed linear improvement in regards to his Speed Index from the 5th race to the 11th. Although the last half of the season experienced instability for Oliveira, he ultimately proved his ability to prioritize and fine tune the skills needed to advance in the series.
Although Francesco Bagnaia had an overall weaker finishing rate, he showed his full range of performance, both good and bad. His Speed Index followed a more expected path for a rookie as he tested his limits and endured a higher fluctuation in performance from one race to the next. While there were clear times of improvement needs for Bagnaia, he countered those races with strong performances that ranked him close to equal or better than his closest rookie opponent, Miguel Oliveira.
Opposed to their Speed Indexes, Bagnaia’s and Oliveira’s Consistency Indexes are clearly more evenly matched. While Oliveira shined bright in the speed department, Bagnaia showed not only gradual improvements in his Consistency Index, but he also maintained a more stable Index range from one race to the next.
The Combined Index allows us to consolidate the above information as it handicaps the Speed Index by the Consistency Index. While this graph may hide minor trends seen within the individual Speed or Consistency Indexes, it provides a more general view of each rider’s performance over the course of 19 races.
Takeaways:
1. Miguel Oliveira saw a more linear path of improvement in the first half of the season but was not able to maintain this momentum in the later races. As he progresses through the series he will no doubt find his rhythm to defend his position in the front of the pack.
2. Francesco Bagnaia’s performance fluctuated greatly from one race to the next but his path followed a more expected route for a first year rookie. Bagnaia excelled in consistency across the board but struggled to match it with a competitive speed as he tested his limits with the new bike. With experience will come trust in the bike and a clearer view of fine tuning needed.
February 13th, 2020
A Growing Diversity In Leading Manufacturers
After a packed weekend of pre-season testing in Malaysia, all eyes lay ahead on the Losail International Circuit who will be once again hosting the opening Grand Prix of the season on March 8th!
The Malaysia test ended with mixed reviews across the board as rookies took to the circuit, riders experimented with new parts and a handful of teams were forced to reposition the focus of the weekend due to physically recovering riders.
There has been a lot of build up around the 2020 season not only because almost every rider is due for a contract renewal, but also because the series as a whole is on a strong trajectory in regards to competitiveness. The amount of last-lap battles throughout the 2019 season kept spectators on the edge of their seats as upcoming talent challenged reigning champions. The rise in competition over the past few years shows promise for the future of the sport as the series continues to grow and expand to new regions.
We could talk all day about the rise and fall of talent and competitiveness within the series, but as everyone knows, a picture is worth a thousand words. So let’s save everyone’s time and study the abstract, seemingly unrelated photo below.
Spoiler alert… this “seemingly unrelated photo” depicts a critical trend seen within the series.
What Am I Looking At?
To start, each colored block represents a different manufacturer:
Red = Ducati
Orange = Honda
Blue = Yamaha
Green = Suzuki
Yellow = KTM
White = N/A
The blocks represent the top 3 riders for each Grand Prix ranked by Combined Index for 2017, 2018 and 2019. The 2017 season is the far left column, the 2019 season is the far right column and 2018 falls in the middle.
Why Did You Rank Riders By Combined Index?
When analyzing a season, riders are often studied by their finishing position with a majority of the coverage focusing on the podium riders. By utilizing the Combined Index, we are able to identify talent beyond just the podium. Yes, sometimes the 3 podium riders bring home the strongest Combined Indexes, but this is not the case for every GP! This indexing system helps to identify talent across the grid by recognizing those who held the fastest, most consistent performance between the flags. A rider who started on the 5th row may maintain the same pace as the leading rider with superior consistency but because of his starting position, he may not be rewarded for his performance due to his non-podium finishing position.
What Can I Take Away From This Abstract Image?
The variation in color significantly increases as you move from left to right. While the top performers in 2017 primarily stemmed from Honda and Yamaha with Ducati trickling in here and there, the following seasons experienced significantly more diversity in top performing manufactures.
February 10th, 2020
Aleix & Aprilia
Aleix Espargaro has been with Aprilia for 3 out of their 5 years in the MotoGP series and after a strong test weekend in Malaysia, the duo left fans feeling optimistic about the 2020 season. A. Espargaro rounded out the top 10 after the combined 3 days of testing with his best results falling on day 1 with a rank of 7th.
As we talk about the outlook of a team, it is also important to identify where it all began and what progress has been made to date. So, below we have provided the annual breakdown of Aleix’s Net Movement vs Net Volatility since joining Aprilia. Before we dive in, let’s elaborate on these two unique pieces of analysis…
Net Movement: The total positions a rider gained or lost between the flags. A positive net movement identifies riders who finished the race ahead of their starting position while a negative net movement exposes those who finished behind their starting position.
Net Volatility: The total passes made between the flags. The Net Volatility is similar to an accountability tracker as it identifies the efficiency of each rider in terms of holding a position. An ideal volatility is one that matches the Net Movement as that would signify that each pass forward was defended with no back and forth fight.
Each chart below represents a season (2017-2019) and compares A. Espargaro’s Net Movement to his Net Volatility for each completed race. The Net movement (blue bar) can either be positive or negative depending on if Aleix finished ahead (positive) or behind (negative) his starting position. The Net Volatility (orange bar) tracks the total passes made between A. Espargaro and other riders. A high volatility is favorable if it is matched by a high Net Movement.
2017
Although A. Espargaro experienced a handful of DNFs during his first season with Aprilia, he almost always finished ahead of his starting grid position. 2017 stands as his 2nd strongest season to date with Aprilia in regards to maintaining efficiency throughout the race as portrayed by the (somewhat) slim gaps between Net Movement to Net Volatility.
2018
2018 was a learning experience for both Aleix and Aprilia as their performance lacked consistency but ultimately reflected improvement from the start to the end of the season. There was a clear improvement in finishing rate as well as efficient moves between the flags as we see 4 almost identical net bars. The start of the season endured instability as the pair’s performance bounced between negative net movement, significantly high volatility and the occasional ideal balance. By the middle/end of the season, Aleix maintained a stronger race performance as he kept his Net Movement positive and experienced less back and forth fights with his opponents.
2019
2019 had its highs and lows for Aleix and Aprilia but overall stands as their strongest year yet in terms of efficient movement forward between the flags. Again, this season saw a higher finishing rate compared to the last and although there are 4 occurrences of negative Net Movement, Aleix’s overall season performance shows great improvement. In fact, Aleix ranks 6th in pre-season Efficiency Trajectory which track each rider’s rate of improvement from 2015 – 2019.
February 5th, 2020
The Evolution Of KTM
KTM joined the MotoGP scene in 2017 with Bradley Smith and Pol Espargaro as their first factory riders. Since then, the manufacturer has seen 2 new factory riders alongside KTM veteran, P. Espargaro as well as the addition of a satellite team.
The first few seasons for a new manufacturer are a critical time as they continue to develop and refine a competitive platform. The Austrian machine has been spotted in the limelight a handful of times as they charge into each race with ambition and hunger for more.
So let’s lay out the annual progress of the KTM Factory Racing Team. The chart below tracks the highest ranked factory rider’s Combined Index movement for each race over the past 3 seasons. Let me break that down…
- Each colored line represents:
– A race season
– The general course of progression that the highest ranked KTM Factory rider experienced in terms of Combined Index over a full season
– The fluctuation in performance over a full season - Since a smaller Combined Index indicates a faster, more consistent performance, a negative slope suggests that the KTM Factory performance improved from the start of the season to the end
Please note that when we say “KTM” we are referring to the KTM Factory Racing team.
2017 (Yellow): KTM showed significant improvement throughout their first season in the MotoGP series. In fact, this season experienced the fastest rate of improvement for them as shown by the steep, negative line. With that said, the drastic slope of the line suggests outliers in performance, both good and bad.
2018 (Orange): Although it may not be obvious, from a data perspective, 2018 remains KTM’s strongest year. Similar to 2017, KTM improved their performance gradually throughout the season as indicated by the negative slope. What stands out from the 2018 season is the consistency in performance. The flatter slope suggests a more dependable performance throughout the race season with overall lower/stronger indexes.
2019 (Blue): 2019 shares some similarities with 2018 in that the slope is quite flat suggesting a more uniform performance throughout the season. Unlike the previous two years, 2019 has a positive slope with suggests that the KTM Factory team started the season off stronger than they finished.
February 3rd, 2020
The Rise of Jack Miller
Entering his 6th year in the MotoGP series, Australian rider, Jack Miller is looking to continue his upward rise. Since bumping up straight from Moto3 in 2015, Miller has had his ups and downs but overall, has shown a steady improvement from one season to the next.
It is evident on the surface, as his annual final championship placement has gradually improved each year, with the exception of 2018. But there is so much more depth to a rider’s performance than that… Let’s identify a few telling signs of Miller’s rise to the podium.
Final Championship Placement: As we said before, each year (with the exception of 2018) Jack Miller has finished stronger than the last. A steady progression from 19th, to 18th, down to 11th, back up to 13th and a significant jump 8th in 2019.
Pre-Season Efficiency Trajectory: Going into the 2020 season, Jack Miller ranks 5th in Efficiency Trajectory. This means that out of all the riders, Miller has the 5th strongest improvement rate in regards to efficiency between the flags. This pre-season outlook takes into account 4 very important variables that are seen in the most successful racers:
1. A strong starting grid position
2. A positive net movement meaning they finished the race ahead of their starting position
3. A large net movement value which suggests they overtook a significant amount of their opponents
4. A lower volatility signifying productive movement
Pre-Season Consistency Trajectory: Jack Miller is evolving as a MotoGP rider. His maturity and precision shone through multiple times this last season and his attention to detail has paid off tremendously. The small refinements in performance are clearly portrayed through his Consistency Index trajectory ranking where he sits 2nd, just behind fellow Ducati rider, Andrea Dovizioso.
Pre-Season Speed Trajectory: The Pramac Ducati rider ranks 3rd for Speed Index Trajectory which suggests an increasingly quick rate of improvement in the speed department. This is much more than Miller simply exploiting the raw power of the Ducati. He has harnessed the power of this incredible machine and has shows his ability to strategically plays the Ducati’s strengths to his opponent’s weaknesses.
A dangerously competitive rider is one who is able to pair an unmatched consistency with a superior speed. On top of that, riders who are able to understand where exactly on a circuit they need to push vs conserve their energy and tires… now that is what makes a champion. We hope to see Miller continue on his path to victory as he battles some of the best riders the MotoGP series has seen.
January 27th, 2020
Now Or Never For The Yamaha Factory Boys
New season, new riders and most importantly, new contracts! Every single rider except Avintia Racing rider, Tito Rabat, is up for contract renewal. Because of this, those who start 2020 with a bang will hold a major advantage over those who ease into the season as fresh blood runs through the paddock and teams eye the grid for their next shining star.
The series has high hopes for the 2020 rookies after the impressive show put on by the 2019 rookies who are now gearing up for their 2nd year in the series. On the other side of the spectrum, many people question the future of some of the more seasoned riders after the unforeseen retirement of MotoGP legend, Jorge Lorenzo.
One of the arguably most talked about riders is Yamaha veteran, Valentino Rossi, as the (almost) 41 year old prepares for another MotoGP season. Rossi will compete alongside his teammate of 3 years, Maverick Vinales, who is hungry for his first World Champion title in the premier league. The two Yamaha Factory riders will have little breathing room as the grid encompasses some of the most unique and talented riders the series has recently seen.
Below we have provided both rider’s ranking for the following trajectories: Efficiency Index, Speed Index and Consistency Index. In addition, we have provided a brief summary of what these trajectories mean in terms of historical and projected performance.
| Index Trajectory Ranking | Valentino Rossi | Maverick Vinales |
| Efficiency Index | 14 | 9 |
| Speed Index | 13 | 6 |
| Consistency Index | 5 | 4 |
Valentino Rossi: A low Efficiency Index trajectory ranking suggests that Rossi has more recently struggled with:
1. consistently qualifying onto the front of the grid
2. defending his starting position and proving his ability to overtake opponents
It is no secret that Rossi struggled a bit with the 2019 bike and was often unable to match the speed of other bikes. There is talk of the 2020 Yamaha significantly improving its profile in the acceleration department which would aid Rossi in advancing his Speed Index trajectory. If this can be done without jeopardizing his superior Consistency Index trajectory, we may just see The Doctor back on top once again.
Maverick Vinales: Vinales poses a great threat to the paddock as his momentum through the series has been steady with a handful of moments in the limelight. He may not have entered as hot as Marquez or Quartararo in their first years, but as Vinales and his team continue to dial in the Yamaha, his future becomes brighter and brighter.
Maverick’s trajectory trend follows closely to Rossi’s as his weakest ranking falls on Efficiency and his strongest ranking falls on Consistency. His outlook looks similar to his teammate’s as an improvement in overall speed would theoretically solve a majority of the issues. A stronger qualifying and more reliable momentum forward through the grid would reflect well on his Efficiency Index trajectory. This season we hope to see a more reliable performance from Vinales as last year, he was either on his A+ game, or was lost in the sea of riders.
January 24th, 2020
2020 Pre-Season Efficiency Trajectories
As teams and riders gear up for the start of the 2020 season, the Grand Prix Scout team is continuing to crank out both performance indexes as well as performance index trajectories. Both pieces of analysis offers unique views into a rider’s career history and more importantly, what their current performance outlook is. This is where the trajectory rankings come into play.
Grand Prix Scout’s newest performance index, the Efficiency Index, identifies a rider’s ability to make forward progress throughout a race. It takes into account each rider’s performance in both free practice and qualifying as the starting grid position is used to weight/handicap the overall efficiency.
This index rewards riders for 4 complimentary performance factors:
1. A strong starting grid position
2. A positive net movement meaning they finished the race ahead of their starting position
3. A large net movement value which suggests they overtook a significant amount of their opponents
4. A lower volatility signifying productive movement
The 2020 pre-season Efficiency Index Trajectories have been posted and the results are as many would say, on point! Click here to view the full ranking list.
January 21st, 2020
DOTD: Consistency Is Key, Right Dovi? Pt. 2
On January 7th, the team released a DOTD that covered Andrea Dovizioso and his superior Consistency Trajectory Index. We discussed the general trends we see in a rider’s race career in regard to the fine balance between speed and consistency.
More specifically, we identified and examined the idea that:
As riders carry out their race career, we expect to see smaller jumps in improvement as they refine their seasoned skills to adapt to the ever evolving sport. On the contrary, greener riders are expected to show a rapid rate of improvement as they prove their worthiness and defend their seats. Because of this, we rarely see the more seasoned riders at the top of the pre-season trajectory rankings.
Spoiler alert, Dovizioso is an exception to the rule as he ranks #1 for Consistency Index trajectory going into the 2020 season
Pt. 2 of this coverage is a simple confirmation that great minds think alike…
Grand Prix Scout’s pre-season trajectories align closely with an article that was just released via MotoGP.com. Titled, What does 2020 hold for the manufacturers? Part 3: Ducati, David Emmett breaks down what Ducati has/will work on during the testing sessions and what they hope to achieve in the upcoming season. Within the article, Emmett covers each Ducati rider and their current standing within the series.
When covering Ducati veteran, Andrea Dovizioso, Emmett notes, “Despite not winning a championship, Dovizioso had a very strong season in 2019. The Italian had wanted to improve his consistency after 2018, and last year he did just that.”
Desmo Dovi is on a clear path to improvement as he builds off his strong foundation and continues to prioritize and refine his needed skills.
January 20th, 2020
A Hidden Gem In Great Britain
Okay, it may not necessarily be a “hidden” gem, but nonetheless, the Silverstone Circuit is a gem and has rightfully earned its spot in our Data Of The Day. When overlaid with two very unique sets of data, Silverstone ranks as one of the most competitive circuits in the series.
The two pieces of data utilized in this study are:
The Silverstone Circuit ranks 3rd in the Average Net Predatory/Prey Movement Index. This means that on average, the British GP experiences frequent passing and change in rider position from one lap to the next. This top ranking suggests that Silverstone stands as one of the more difficult circuits that holds less manufacturer advantage and rewards individual rider skill.
The top 5 ranked circuits for Average Net Predator/Prey Movement Index are:
1. Catalunya
2. Silverstone
3. Le Mans
4. Jerez
5. Termas de Rio Hondo
Out of the top 3 circuits listed above, Silverstone has the smallest range in Average Historical Combined Index. (If you are unfamiliar with Grand Prix Scout’s unique indexing system, click here!)
A small range in Combined Index reflects tight competition across the grid, with no outliers falling behind or racing ahead. Similar to the Net Movement Index, this indicates a highly competitive circuit as each rider’s skill level falls within the same playing field.
January 17th, 2020
Narrowing The Playing Field
The Chang International Circuit has now hosted 2 race weekends since joining the MotoGP series and has been bumped up from October to March for the upcoming race season. That’s right, teams and riders will kick off the 2020 season with the famous night race in Qatar before jumping over to Thailand for the Chang showdown.
Although the 2019 Thai GP yielded similar results as the 2018 race, with 2 of the same riders landing on the podium both years, the sector breakdown discloses otherwise. Yes, Marc Marquez took 1st place both years with fellow Spanish rider, Maverick Vinales right behind him in 3rd place both years. But the leading riders in sector Speed Index and Consistency Index displayed very different patterns.
Overall, the 2018 Thai GP showed great variation on a sector level in regard to leading indexes. On the contrary, 2019 was a constant battle between Marquez and Quartararo with Dovizioso popping up here and there. The chart below portrays the variation in pattern from one year to the next. The significant diversity in riders with leading indexes is hard to miss in 2018 compared to 2019.
| Index | Sector | 2018 | 2019 |
| Speed | 1 | Andrea Dovizioso | Marc Marquez |
| Consistency | 1 | Bradley Smith | Marc Marquez |
| Speed | 2 | Marc Marquez | Fabio Quartararo |
| Consistency | 2 | Johann Zarco | Andrea Dovizioso |
| Speed | 3 | Johann Zarco | Fabio Quartararo |
| Consistency | 3 | Valentino Rossi | Fabio Quartararo |
| Speed | 4 | Andrea Dovizoso | Fabio Quartararo |
| Consistency | 4 | Alvaro Bautista | Andrea Dovizioso |
So why do we care?
The diversity in leading riders in 2018 compared to the narrow range in 2019 represents a general trend seen within the series. Please note, both patterns are important…
In 2018, we saw a more level playing field with a wider variety of riders partaking in the battles to the podium. The entire grid as a whole proved to viewers that the sport was excelling with more seasoned riders successfully grooming and challenging their successors.
In 2019, we saw the domination of a single team and a single rider. The level of talent exposed to race fans this past season exceeded all prior expectations. In addition, we saw the rapid rise of rookies from 4 different manufacturers which reinstalled faith in the series.
January 14th, 2020
Honda 2020 – All For One & One For All
It is no secret that Repsol Honda rider, Marc Marquez, took the 2019 season by storm. He won the World Champion title by 151 points and single handily snagged both the Team and Constructor Of The Year award.
Some would say that 2019 was a very successful year for Honda, others would strongly disagree. On the surface yes, Honda dominated. But if you look across the grid, where were Marquez’s fellow Honda riders? Some were recovering from injuries, others were scrambling to adapt to the new machine. LCR rider, Cal Crutchlow made 3 podium appearances but was not able to maintain a consistent performance otherwise. At the end of the day, it is not sustainable for a manufacturer to rely on one rider to defend their name.
There is talk of the 2020 Honda being more rider friendly to (hopefully) expedite the new season new bike adapting period. We hope to see Crutchlow, Nakagami and factory rookie, A. Marquez find their groove sooner rather than later because as it stands, Honda does not fall within the top ranked trajectories.
It is the Italian manufacturer, Ducati who ranks highest for the combined speed and consistency trajectories, followed closely by Yamaha. This means that the riders with the quickest rate of improvement for speed and consistency are currently on either a Ducati or Yamaha. These riders have offered positive reviews from their pre-season testings and are on track to come in HOT to the 2020 season.
January 13th, 2020
2019 Started With A Bang
The Losail International Circuit remains the only night-time race and offers a unique backdrop for each season opener. Qatar has yet to disappoint as year after year, the race weekend evolves into a ruthless battle where rookies set out to make a name for themselves, established teams and riders defend their names and of course, the newest machines make their big debut.
Last year’s Qatar Grand Prix started the season with a bang and looking back, it unknowingly set the tone for the remaining 18 races. The season started with the smallest gap in both time and Combined Index compared to the 2 prior years.
In 2019, Ducati rider, Andrea Dovizioso took his first GP win of the season just 0.023 seconds ahead of Repsol Honda rider, Marc Marquez. The next 2 years going back saw a slightly larger gap between race winner and runner up.
The Combined Indexes for race winner and runner up follow a very similar trend with each year presenting a smaller gap. A smaller gap suggests tighter competition – could 2020 bring an even closer season opener?
January 9th, 2020
The Two Extremes of Average Predator Movement
Everyone loves to see an epic battle in and out of corners as riders play their and their bike’s strengths to their opponent’s weaknesses. A dominant rider can not only effectively overtake their opponents, but they can also defend their position from those hunting them down.
Today we are going to focus on the offensive side of the game through the use of the Predator Index. To be more specific, which circuit has historically experienced the highest rate of passing vs the lowest.
Grand Prix Scout indexes every single rider on every single circuit to obtain both single race and historical average data. The indexes built off the base Predator and Prey Indexes help identify larger picture trends across the grid.
A higher rate of overtaking suggests a tighter race as there is a smaller gap between riders, therefore, more movement between them. On the contrary, a lower rate of overtaking indicates a wider spread in talent across the grid as riders present a wider range in competitiveness.
As it stands, Phillip Island Circuit ranks #1 in Average Predator Index as it has historically experienced the highest average rate of overtaking. On the other end of the spectrum, the Chang International Circuit ranks #19 with a significantly smaller Average Historical Predator Index.
January 7th, 2020
Consistency Is Key, Right Dovi?
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, fast times are nothing without consistency. Sure, a fast lap time can give you a leg up in qualifying, but in order get ahead and stay ahead, a rider must maintain a certain level of consistency.
Riders tend to enter the series one of two ways:
- Guns absolutely blazing with fast, yet inconsistent times that result in unreliable race weekends
- Slower times that do not sacrifice consistency which ultimately result in gradual improvement up the grid (the what we like to call, more mature route)
As riders carry out their race career, we expect to see smaller jumps in improvement as they refine their seasoned skills to adapt to the ever evolving sport. On the contrary, greener riders are expected to show a rapid rate of improvement as they prove their worthiness and defend their seats. Because of this, we rarely see the more seasoned riders at the top of the pre-season trajectory rankings.
Andrea Dovizioso is an exception to the rule as he ranks #1 for Consistency Index trajectory going into the 2020 season. This means that out of all the riders, he shows the the quickest rate of improvement with the strongest 2020 outlook in the consistency department. It can be hard to teach an older dog new tricks, but do not doubt Desmo Dovi as he builds off his strong foundation and continues to prioritize and refine his needed skills.
January 3rd, 2020
Which Spanish Circuit Experiences The Widest Range In Race Performance?
The great thing about studying a series through numerical data is that you are able to obtain a big picture view before diving into the nitty gritty details. When we talk about the competition and talent within the MotoGP series, we aren’t just talking about the top 5 riders. We try to understand and dissect riders across the entire grid in order to better understand the direction of the series. The number of angles in which you can study teams, riders and circuits is extensive and we are here to identify the most important angles.
The MotoGP calendar is up to 20 races. Sooner or later some historical circuits will be dropped off to make room for the up and coming locations (Thailand/Indonesia/Finland). So who will be dropped? Perhaps a Spanish circuit as the country currently holds 4 out of the 20 GPs? If so, which circuit?
Below we have ranked the Spanish circuits by range in Combined Index from the 2019 season. This allows you to see the competitive level across the entire grid as a lower ranked (starting at 1) indicates the circuit with the smallest gap in performance from 1st place to last. This means that the circuit ranked #1 has historically endured a tighter race across the grid.
- Catalunya
- Jerez
- Aragon
- Valencia
January 2nd, 2020
Home Court Advantage.. Or Not?
Valentino Rossi AKA “The Doctor” remains one of the most famous riders in MotoGP history due to his years of domination and charismatic ways in and out of the paddock. Valentino Rossi at his home circuit (Mugello), now that’s a race you don’t want to miss.
As clouds of yellow fill the stands and the number 46 appears on every TV screen, it becomes more about the rider and less about his race day performance. Now this may be working in Rossi’s favor because as it stands, his performance trajectory at Mugello is showing signs of plateauing.
Rossi’s historical Combined Indexes from 2014 – 2019 at Mugello detect 2 things:
- Each year his Combined Index weakens. This means that he is unable to match his opponents in regard to speed handicapped by consistency as they are benchmarked against each other. To put it simply, Rossi’s opponents are advancing at a quicker rate.
- The annual variance in Rossi Combined Index is threatening a flatline…The difference in his Combined Index from 2017 to 2018 is much smaller than that of 2015 to 2016. This would be a good sign if his Combined Index values were improving but as we established, his annual indexes are gradually weakening.
It is evident that Valentino Rossi is approaching a plateau in his race performance at the Mugello Circuit.
December 26th, 2019
From Zero To Hero – Danilo Petrucci vs Mugello
Italian rider, Danilo Petrucci won his first race in the premier league this past year at the infamous Mugello Circuit. A home court win for both Petrucci and Ducati, the 2019 Italian GP was an emotional and historic day to remember.
Petrucci’s 2019 victory was a steppingstone in his career as he defended his factory seat and his reputation as a threat in the series. His past trajectory in regard to speed and consistency did not have a positive outlook as his Mugello race performance fluctuated greatly from year to year. Below we have provided the general trend in both Consistency Index and Speed Index from 2015 through 2019.
2015 to 2016: Speed Index weakened / Consistency Index strengthened
2016 to 2017: Speed Index strengthened / Consistency Index weakened
2017 to 2018: Speed Index weakened / Consistency Index weakened
2018 to 2019: Speed Index strengthened / Consistency Index strengthened
In the past, Petrucci had sacrificed his consistency for a competitive speed (and vice versa). His performance in 2019 was the first time in 5 years that he was able to find a strong balance between the two and play this strength against his opponents.
December 23rd, 2019
Hidden Talent Across The Grid – Qatar Grand Prix 2019
Flashback to the opening race of the 2019 season… Ducati rider Andrea Dovizioso started the season with a bang as he crossed the checkered flag just 0.023 seconds ahead of the (soon to be) 2019 World Champion, Marc Marquez. Cal Crutchlow rounded out the podium landing Honda 2 impressive podium finishes.
While 3 riders finished with the leading sector Speed Indexes across all 4 sectors (Dovizioso, Marquez and Rossi) the sector Consistency Indexes had a much bigger variety in riders. Below we have provided the rider with the top Consistency Index for each sector.
Note – the top riders for both Consistency and Speed Index stem from almost all the manufacturers with the exception of Aprilia. The 2019 season was noted as one of the most competitive seasons in recent history and the diversity in leading manufacturer from the Qatar GP was a clear, early indicator of this.
Consistency Sector 1: Johann Zarco, KTM Red Bull
Consistency Sector 2: Cal Crutchlow, LCR Honda
Consistency Sector 3: Joan Mir, Suzuki Ecstar
Consistency Sector 4: Pol Espargaro, KTM Red Bull
December 20th, 2019
Catalunya: #1 In Average Net Predator/Prey Movement Index
To start, the Average Net Predator/Prey Movement Index refers to the rate of passing between riders from start to finish. A high passing rate suggests a more difficult circuit that holds less manufacturer advantage and rewards individual rider skill. This new index allows us to study circuits on a new level and identify the unique characteristics that may otherwise go unnoticed.
The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya ranks 1st as it has historically seen the most amount of passes from start to finish. Whereas some circuits favor specific manufacturers and their unmatched advantages (think Ducati acceleration power or Honda agility), Catalunya covers all bases when it comes to configuration characteristics. This results in a tighter race with smaller gaps between riders.
To see a full list that includes all the circuits, click here.
December 17th, 2019
Marc Marquez vs Alex Rins
Circuit of the Americas
Marc Marquez AKA the “COTA King” locked down not only pole position 2012 – 2018, but also dominated each race and stood as the only rider to win COTA since it was added to the series in 2014. Well, that is until Suzuki rider, Alex Rins took home his first MotoGP victory this past year at COTA.
While Marquez has historically relied heavily on his untouchable race pace at COTA, Rins brought a new level of consistency to the circuit which ultimately helped him secure a 1st place finish.
The difference in Rins’s Speed Index for all sectors combined vs Rossi who came in second was a slim 0.016. To put this in perspective, the closest anyone has ever been to matching Marquez’s Speed Index was 0.03 – double that of Rins this past year!
It is clear that superior speed can put ground between riders. But as others begin picking up their pace, consistency will stand as a prominent deciding factor as to who will reach the podium and who will not.
December 16th, 2019
Franco Morbidelli, Petronas Yamaha SRT
Young Italian rider, Franco Morbidelli has made great strides since joining the MotoGP series in 2018. While his 2019 performance may have fallen in the shadows of his rookie teammate, Fabio Quartararo, Morbidelli’s trajectory numbers tell a different story.
Franco Morbidelli ranks #1 for the pre-season rider trajectories in regard to speed. This means that his Speed Index portrays the fastest rate of improvement compared to all other riders who have at least 2 years of experience in the MotoGP series.
His trajectory rate surpassed Alex Rins who ranked #1 going into the 2019 season and currently ranks 2nd (both for speed trajectory).
To see a full list of rider speed and consistency trajectories, click here!
December 13th, 2019
Johann Zarco, Avintia Ducati
From Yamaha to KTM to Honda to Ducati, Johann Zarco has bounced around quite a bit since joining the MotoGP series in 2017.
While the constant team switch may have affected his performance on the surface, Zarco has been able to prioritize his training and skill refinement as he holds the 3rd strongest Consistency Index trajectory going into the 2020 season.
Yes, his qualifying and final race position may have fluctuated significantly over the past 3 years… But his focus and drive to adapt to new teams and new bikes paid off.
As Zarco worked to achieve maximum harmony with his varying bikes, he greatly refined his skills in the consistency department.
Once he settles in with Avintia and (hopefully) finds his comfort within the team and bike, we hope to see Zarco match this superior consistency with quicker pace around the circuit.
December 12th, 2019
Cal Crutchlow, LCR Honda
Termas de Rio Hondo 2019
Despite being (controversially) penalized with a pit lane ride through after a jump start off the grid, Cal Crutchlow finished the Argentina Grand Prix with the 2nd strongest Combined Index.
How was this possible?
His superior consistency and speed mirrored that of the race winner, Marc Marquez. With almost identical Speed & Consistency Indexes for all sectors combined, Crutchlow matched Marquez’s podium worthy performance. Well, matched in numbers…
It’s fair to say that the ride-through penalty costed Crutchlow an exciting battle for not only a podium finish, but a fight for the race win.
What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, right?